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Modelling of Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden. and Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier Population Area Increase Rate

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Abstract

On the basis of developed individual-based model and empirical data the importance of anemochory for the dispersal of giant hogweed mericarpia over long distances (up to 55 m from the parent plant) was proved. The use of cellular automate for modelling of the plant population area increase allowed to reveal the influence of weather condition, number and spatial distribution of hogweed plants in the period of the beginning of introduction on the rate of invasion. Verification of the results of the cellular automaton work based on satellite images and field observations showed a significant level of compliance of theoretical calculations and observed results. The logistic functions parameters describing the change in the area of giant invasive hogweed stands were determined. A retrospective analysis of satellite images of model plots, starting from the 1990s of the 20th century, showed an annual increase in the area of hogweed populations by 20% in the exponential population growth phase. A significant variability in the rate of invasion (from 5 to 70% per year) depended on the initial conditions and stage of invasion, usage modes and ecological capacity of the available sites.

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Funding

The study was carried out within the framework of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research project “Modeling potential habitats of invasive species Heracleum sosnowskyi and Heracleum mantegazzianum in Eastern Europe” (20-54-18002 Bolg_a) and the project supported by Ministry of science and higher education of the Russian Federation “Photosynthesis, respiration and bioenergy of plants and phototrophic organisms (physiological and biochemical, molecular genetic and environmental aspects)” (Reg. no. 1021062311434-4-1.6.11).

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  1. Institute of Biology, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 167982, Syktyvkar, Russia

    I. V. Dalke & I. F. Chadin

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Correspondence to I. V. Dalke or I. F. Chadin.

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Dalke, I.V., Chadin, I.F. Modelling of Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden. and Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier Population Area Increase Rate. Russ J Biol Invasions 14, 509–522 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2075111723040045

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