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Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Progression: Prediction of Severity and Outcome

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Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations Aims and scope

Abstract

The objective of the study is to develop a method that enables to predict disease severity at the moment of admission to an intensive care unit and to choose appropriate respiratory support. The problem of patient classification by disease course is solved by using information about comorbid chronic states and a modified comorbidity index. To prove the applicability of the index for severe COVID-19 patients, we developed a mathematical model for disease progression. The estimated values of the model parameters showed the difference between probabilities of transition to critical states and/or lethal outcome in different groups.

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Funding

This study was financially supported by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science through grant no. 075-11-2020-011 (13.1902.21.0040).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    V. Ya. Kisselevskaya-Babinina

  2. Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    V. Ya. Kisselevskaya-Babinina, A. A. Romanyukha & T. E. Sannikova

Authors
  1. V. Ya. Kisselevskaya-Babinina
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  2. A. A. Romanyukha
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  3. T. E. Sannikova
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to V. Ya. Kisselevskaya-Babinina, A. A. Romanyukha or T. E. Sannikova.

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APPENDIX

APPENDIX

Values of Model Parameter Estimations and Their Confidence Intervals

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Kisselevskaya-Babinina, V.Y., Romanyukha, A.A. & Sannikova, T.E. Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Progression: Prediction of Severity and Outcome. Math Models Comput Simul 15, 987–998 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2070048223060121

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