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Mathematical Model for Assessing the Information Impact on the Electorate in Social Media during Election Campaigns

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Abstract

A mathematical model for assessing the informational impact on the electorate in social media during election campaigns is developed. It is based on the well-known mathematical models of information warfare in a structured society and differs from them by taking into account the stochastic nature of the intensity of information dissemination from external sources. The final model is reduced to a system of stochastic differential equations, understood in the sense of Ito. The estimate of the number of adherents and preadherents who favor a candidate during the election campaign is given by the sample mean, which is calculated by the probability density function determined from the solution of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation. The Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov (FPK) equation is solved according to the proposed numerical scheme based on the projection formulation of the Galerkin method. The simulation results for the test problem are presented.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Academy of the Federal Security Service Russia, Orel, Russia

    I. S. Poljanskij, K. O. Loginov, N. I. Ilyin & A. S. Velikikh

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  1. I. S. Poljanskij
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  2. K. O. Loginov
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  3. N. I. Ilyin
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  4. A. S. Velikikh
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Correspondence to I. S. Poljanskij.

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Poljanskij, I.S., Loginov, K.O., Ilyin, N.I. et al. Mathematical Model for Assessing the Information Impact on the Electorate in Social Media during Election Campaigns. Math Models Comput Simul 14, 590–598 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S207004822204007X

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