Abstract
The mathematical model of the interaction of two opposing sides is considered in the form of a system of differential equations (Lanchester), the coefficients of which are random processes given by the characteristic functional. The problem is to find the first moment functions of the solution. This problem is reduced to a deterministic system of differential equations with ordinary and variational derivatives. Explicit formulas are obtained for the first two moment functions of the solution of the stochastic system. Problems with Gaussian and uniformly distributed random coefficients are considered. Numerical calculations and graphs of the behavior of the mathematical expectation and dispersion function are presented.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
F. Lanchester, Aircraft in Warfare: the Dawn of the Fourth Arm (Constable and Co., London, 1916).
M. Osipov, “The influence of the numerical strength of engaged forces on their casualties,” Voen. Sb., No. 6, 59–74; No. 7, 25–30; No. 8, 31–40; No. 9, 25–37 (1915).
D. A. Novikov, “Hierarchical models of warfare,” Autom. Remote Control 74 (10), 1733–1752 (2013).
E. S. Venttsel, Introduction to Operations Research (Sovetskoe Radio, Moscow, 1964) [in Russian].
V. A. Gordin. Differential and Difference Equations. What Phenomena do they Describe and How to Solve them (Vyssh. Shkola Ekon., Moscow, 2016) [in Russian].
G. A. Vasilev, V. G. Kazakov, and A. F. Tarakanov, “Game-theoretical modeling of confrontation between the parties based on the reflexive control,” Probl. Upr., No. 5, 49–55 (2018).
V. V. Shumov, “Hierarchy of models of military actions and border conflicts,” UBS, No. 79, 122–130 (2019).
V. V. Shumov, “Hierarchical and matrix models of border security,” Mat. Model. 26 (3), 137–148 (2014).
N. J. Mackay, “When Lanchester met Richardson, the outcome was Stalemate: a parable for mathematical models of insurgency,” J. Oper. Res. Soc. 66 (2), 191–201 (2015).
A. V. Ganicheva, “The modified Lanchester’s model of fighting,” Avtom. Prots. Upr. 58 (4), 72–81 (2019).
M. Kress, J. P. Caulkins, G. Feichtinger, and D. Grass, A. Seidl, “Lanchester mode for three-way combat,” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 264 (1), 46–54 (2018).
D. A. Novikov, “Hierarchical models of warfare,” Autom. Remote Control 74 (10), 1733–1752 (2013).
V. Yu. Chuev and I. V. Dubograi, “Probabilistic models of two-sided combat operations with linear dependences of the effective rate of fire of the combat units of the sides on the time of the battle with a preemptive strike of one of them,” Mat. Model. Chislennye Metody, No. 2, 122–132 (2018).
V. Yu. Chuev, “Probabilistic model of the battle of numerous forces,” Vestn. Mosk. Gos. Tekh. Univ. im. N. E. Baumana, Ser. Estestv. Nauki, Spets. Vyp. Mat. Model., pp. 223–232 (2011).
A. V. Fursikov, “Moment theory for the Navier-Stokes equations with a random right side,” Russ. Acad. Sci., Izv. Math. 41 (3), 515–555 (1993).
A.V. Fursikov, “Solvability of a chain of equations for space-time moments,” Math. USSR-Sb. 53 (2), 307–334 (1986).
G. Adomian, Stochastic Systems, Mathematics in Science and Engineering, Vol. 169 (Academic Press, New York, 1983; Mir, Moscow, 1987).
V. G. Zadorozhnii, Variational Analysis Methods (Regulyar. Khaotich. Dinamika, Moscow–Izhevsk, 2006) [in Russian].
V. G. Zadorozhnii and M. A. Konovalova, “Differential equation in a Banach space multiplicatively perturbed by random noise,” Sovrem. Mat. Fundam. Napravleniia 63 (4), 599–614 (2017).
Funding
E.E. Dikareva’s research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant no. 19-01-00732-a).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zadorozhny, V.G., Chebotarev, A.S. & Dikarev, E.E. Lanchester’s Stochastic Model of Combat Operations. Math Models Comput Simul 13, 1122–1137 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2070048221060247
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S2070048221060247