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Spatiotemporal Model of the Ecosystem of the Novosibirsk Reservoir


The development of a space-time approach in modeling to display the spatial (including aquatic, in the case of reservoirs) differentiation of objects of study is important for geography. A model of the aquatic ecosystem has been created to assess the course of eutrophication, one of the main causes of the deterioration of the ecological state of inland and coastal waters. This simulation model makes it possible to analyze and predict long-term trends in the development of hydro biogeocenoses. The model reproduces the main intra-annual and intradaily changes in the ecosystems of reservoirs. The novelty of the study consists of its combination of methods for modeling structural and dynamic processes and cycles of transformation of biogeochemical elements in a spatially heterogeneous ecosystem of the reservoir. For this purpose, the Biogen simulation model is used, on the basis of which it was previously possible to reproduce the long-term trend of eutrophication of the Novosibirsk Reservoir. Changes in water quality under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors are analyzed and predicted using the example of 1981 data for the abovementioned reservoir. The significant excess of phytoplankton biomass in the deepwater zone with a fast current compared to the shallow lagoon in the central part of the reservoir, which is observed every year, is explained. The reason for the regular excess of phytoplankton biomass at depth compared to the surface layer near the dam of the Novosibirsk Reservoir in August is determined. The ecohydrological mechanism of these cases of unusual spatial distribution of phytoplankton is explained and evaluated. The reaction of the ecosystem to a possible change in the operation mode of the hydropower facility is predicted.

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This work was carried out as part of the State Task of the Institute of Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, with support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Government of the Altai krai (Russian Federation) (18-41-220002r_a).

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Correspondence to A. A. Tskhai or V. Yu. Ageikov.

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Tskhai, A.A., Ageikov, V.Y. Spatiotemporal Model of the Ecosystem of the Novosibirsk Reservoir. Geogr. Nat. Resour. 43 (Suppl 1), S85–S91 (2022).

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  • aquatic ecosystem
  • eutrophication
  • model
  • mechanism