Abstract
We consider the various methods of constructing models intended to forecast the average water inflow, in the second quarter of the year, into two reservoirs on the Yenisei river. To solve modeling problems used a new computer technology implemented in the specialized “Stochastic Modeling” software package. Independent data were employed to verify the variants of the models for the formation of variability in quarterly inflow as generated based on different algorithms. A more sophisticated and robust model for forecasting the inflow was constructed as an ensemble of partial models. Based on aggregate results of modeling, we suggest the method of constructing a forecast of the average (for the second quarter) lateral inflow into the Krasnoyarsk reservoir and the inflow into the Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoir by use of observational data accumulated by Srednesibirskoe UGMS (Weather Control and Environmental Monitoring Service), based on an ensemble of partial models. It is established that such an operation reduces the probability of forecasting errors implying an arbitrary selection of models. We constructed forecasts of the aforementioned characteristics using real-time data for 2015. It is stated that the solution of the forecasting problem can be facilitated by using additional information.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Popov, E.G., Questions in Theory and Practice of Streamflow Predictions, Moscow: Gidrometeoizdat, 1964 [in Russian].
Zmieva, E.S., Calculating the Water Inflow to the Kuibyshev and Volgograd Reservoirs, Moscow: Gidrometeoizdat, 1964 [in Russian].
Khristoforov, A.V., Concerning the Problem of Forecasting hydrological Characteristics From Regression Equations, Meteorol. Gidrol., 1975, no. 11, pp. 72–80 [in Russian].
Bel’chikov, V.A. and Koren’, V.I., The Model of Formation of Snowmelt and Rain Discharges for Forest Drainage Areas, Trudy Gidromettsentra SSSR, 1979, issue 218, pp. 3–21 [in Russian].
Vinogradov, Yu.B., Mathematical Modeling of Streamflow Formation Processes, Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1988 [in Russian].
Khristoforov, A.V., Reliability of Streamflow Calculations, Moscow: Moscow Gos. Univ., 1993 [in Russian].
Burakov, D.A. and Adamovich, A.A., Long-Term Forecasts of Water Inflow to Reservoirs of Yenisei Hydroelectric Power Plants With the Use of a Mathematical Model, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2006, issue 1, pp. 74–95.
Gel’fan, A.N., Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of the Formation of Snowmelt Runoff, Moscow: Nauka, 2007 [in Russian].
Kuchment, L.S. and Gelfan, A.N., A Study of Effectiveness of the Ensemble Long-Term Forecasts of Spring Floods Issues With Physically Based Models of the River Runoff Formation, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., vol. 34, issue 2, pp. 100–109.
Burakov, D.A. and Litvinova, O.S., Water-Balance Dependencies for Forecasting the Melt Water Runoff in the South of the West Siberian Plain, Geogr. Nat. Resour., vol. 31, issue 3, pp. 269–277.
Burakov, D.A., Longterm Forecasting of Snowmelt Runoff, in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS). Hydrological Systems Modeling, 2011, vol. 1, pp. 102–136.
Al’sova, O.K. and Gubarev, V.V., Solving the Problems of Managing the Novosibirsk Reservoir on the Basis of Forecasting the Water Inflow to the Discharge Site, Proc. 12th All-Union Meeting on Management Problems VSPU-2014 (June 16–19, 2014, Moscow), pp. 3148–3158. URL: http://vspu2014ipuru/proceedings/ prcdngs/3148pdf (Accessed 09.30.2015) [in Russian].
Burakov, D.A. and Goroshko, N.V., Landscape- Hydrological Regionalization in Streamflow Forecasting Models (A case Study of the Upper Ob’ Basin), Proc. 4th Internet Sci. Conf. on “Geographical Science, Tourism and Education Current Problems and Development Prospects” (April 1–27, 2015, Novosibirsk), Novosibirsk, 2015, pp. 14–17.[in Russian].
Ignatov, A.V., The Idea of the Algorithm of Extrapolating the Nonstationary Hydrometeorological Series Using an Optimized Empirical Model, Geogr. Nat. Resour., 2010, vol. 31, issue 1, pp. 68–73.
Ignatov, A.V., Kravchenko, V.V. and Chekmarev, A.A., Stochastic Modeling. URL: http://wwwirigsirkru/ workhtml (Accessed 03.30.2015) [in Russian].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © D.A. Burakov, I.N. Gordeev, A.V. Ignatov, O.E. Petkun, L.A. Putintsev, A.A. Chekmarev, 2016, published in Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy, 2016, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 175-182.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Burakov, D.A., Gordeev, I.N., Ignatov, A.V. et al. Forecasting the water inflow into the Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoirs in the second quarter of the year. Geogr. Nat. Resour. 37, 158–164 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1875372816020104
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1875372816020104