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Value of the ABCD3 Score Combined with a Multiple Indicators Model in the Evaluation of the Prognosis of Non-Disabling Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events

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Abstract

This study aimed to develop an alignment diagram to predict recurrence within 30 days of onset in patients with non-disabling ischemic stroke (NICE). We selected and followed-up 214 patients with transient ischemic attack or mild ischemic stroke within 72 h of onset for 30 days. The independent risk factors for stroke recurrence and progression were analyzed using Cox regression models. A multiple indicators model was established to plot the alignment diagram. The discrimination and calibration of the model were compared with those of traditional risk models. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission (hazard ratio [HR], 1.352; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.055–1.733), ABCD3 score (HR, 1.490; 95% CI, 1.025–2.165), and high sensitivity C-reactive protein levels ≥3 mg/L (HR, 3.251; 95% CI, 1.585–6.666) were identified as independent risk factors for the recurrence or progression of NICE within 30 days. The area under the curve of the multiple indicators model was 0.759 (95% CI, 0.664–0.854), with a superior discrimination and calibration than conventional ABCD3 scores, resulting in a 12.5% higher predictive power. The multiple indicators model in this study had good discrimination and calibration, and was more effective than traditional prediction models for risk assessment in patients with NICE.

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Funding

This work was supported by Lianyungang City Health and Family Planning Science and Technology Project (201816).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Neurology Department, Lianyungang Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 222004, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, China

    Baodong Gu, Xin Li, Qing Du & Xianjun Ma

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  1. Baodong Gu
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  2. Xin Li
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  3. Qing Du
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  4. Xianjun Ma
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Correspondence to Xin Li.

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Conflicts of interest. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest in relation to this work.

Ethical approval. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Lianyungang Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. All patients or their families signed a written informed consent form allowing the use of clinical records in further clinical research at the time of diagnosis.

Additional information

Corresponding author; address: Neurology Department, Lianyungang Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No.160, Chaoyang Road, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, 222004 China, e-mail: lixin5y@aliyun.com.

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Baodong Gu, Li, X., Du, Q. et al. Value of the ABCD3 Score Combined with a Multiple Indicators Model in the Evaluation of the Prognosis of Non-Disabling Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events. Neurochem. J. 17, 149–155 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1819712423010051

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