Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Scenario Forecasts of Expected Damage from Permafrost Degradation: Regional and Industry Issues

  • REGIONAL PROBLEMS
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article is a continuation of a previous study on a methodology for forecasting expected damage to fixed assets from permafrost thawing precipitated by climate change in the northern regions of Russia, in which the authors proposed an integrated methodology for economic assessment of thawing-related risks adjusted for industry- and region-specific features. The present article uses that methodology to substantiate an assessment of the expected damage from permafrost degradation to the industrial complexes of the nine discussed regions under three scenarios that differ in dynamics and intensity of climate change. Estimates of the total damage from permafrost thawing to the fixed assets of these regions over a 30-year period range across the scenarios from 3.6 trillion to 5.7 trillion rubles. In terms of comparing regions, the damage is the most significant in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug—1.8–2.5 trillion rubles, amounting to about 50% of the total damage; in terms of industries the damage is the worst for the extractive industry—2.0–2.7 trillion rubles.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The methodology of these calculations is based on the model complex of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, used for macroeconomic forecasting.

REFERENCES

  1. A. J. Constable, S. Harper, J. Dawson, K. Holsman, T. Mustonen, D. Piepen-burg, and B. Rost, “Cross-chapter paper 6: Polar regions,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, and B. Rama (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2022), pp. 2319–2368. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.023

    Book  Google Scholar 

  2. Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation. General Summary (Rosgidromet. Naukoemkie Tekhnologii, St. Petersburg, 2022) [in Russian].

  3. P. I. Kotov and V. Z. Khilimonyuk, “Building stability. On Permafrost in Vorkuta, Russia,” Geogr., Environ., Sustainability 14 (4), 67–74 (2021). https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2021-043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. O. A. Anisimov and D. A. Streletskii, “Geocryological risks during the thawing of permafrost,” Arktika XXI Vek. Estestv. Nauki, No. 2, 60–74 (2015).

  5. A. A. Vasil’ev, A. G. Gravis, A. A. Gubar’kov, D. S. Drozdov, Yu. V. Korostelev, G. V. Malkova, G. E. Oblogov, O. E. Ponomareva, M. R. Sadurtdinov, I. D. Streletskaya, and D. A. Streletskii, “Permafrost degradation: Results of long-term geocryological monitoring in the western sector of the Russian Arctic,” Kriosfera Zemli 24 (2), 15–30 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  6. V. I. Grebenets, V. A. Tolmanov, and D. A. Streletskiy, “Active layer dynamics near Norilsk, Taimyr Peninsula, Russia,” Geogr., Environ., Sustainability 14 (4), 55–66 (2021). https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2021-073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. L. N. Khrustalev and V. Z. Khilimonyuk, “New foundation for buildings in the Arctic,” Kriosfera Zemli 22 (4), 25–30 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  8. A. V. Glasko, A. M. Kalmykov, I. V. Meshcherin, A. A. Fedotov, and P. V. Khrapov, “Freezing of soils of foundations of geotechnical objects in the permafrost zone using vertical thermal stabilizers,” Vestn. Mosk. Gos. Tekh. Univ. im. N. E. Baumana, Ser. Estestv. Nauki 7 (7), 33 (2012).

  9. E. S. Ashpiz and L. N. Khrustalev, “Prevention of degradation of permafrost soils at the base of railway embankments,” Kriosfera Zemli 24 (5), 45–50 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  10. J. Hjort, O. Karjalainen, J. Aalto, et al., “Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century,” Nat. Commun. 9, 5147 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. V.P. Mel’nikov, V. I. Osipov, A. V. Brushkov, S. V. Badina, D. S. Drozdov, V. A. Dubrovin, M. N. Zheleznyak, M. R. Sadurtdinov, D. O. Sergeev, N. A. Ostarkov, A. A. Falaleeva, and Ya. Yu. Shelkov, “Assessment of damage to residential and industrial buildings and structures during temperature changes and thawing of permafrost soils in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation by the middle of the 21st century,” Geoekol. Inzh. Geol., Gidrogeol., Geokriol., No. 1, 14–31 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  12. V. P. Mel’nikov, V. I. Osipov, A. V. Brushkov, S. V. Badina, S. A. Velikin, D. S. Drozdov, V. A. Dubrovin, O. V. Zhdaneev, M. N. Zheleznyak, M. E. Kuznetsov, A. B. Osokin, N. A. Ostarkov, M. R. Sadurtdinov, D. O. Sergeev, E. V. Ustinova, R. Yu. Fedorov, K. N. Frolov, and R. V. Chzhan, “Decreased stability of the infrastructure of Russia’s fuel and energy complex in the Arctic because of the increased annual average temperature of the surface layer of the cryolithozone,” Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 92, 115–125 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331622020083

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. S. V. Badina, “Estimation of the value of buildings and structures in the context of permafrost degradation: The case of the Russian Arctic,” Polar Sci. 29, 100730 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. D. A. Streletskiy, L. Suter, N. I. Shiklomanov, B. N. Porfiriev, and D. O. Eliseev, “Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost,” Lett. Environ. Res. 14, 025003 (2019).

  15. B. N. Porfiriev, D. O. Eliseev, and D. A. Streletskiy, “Economic assessment of permafrost degradation effects on the housing sector in the Russian Arctic,” Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 91, 17–25 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. T. Mustonen and V. Shadrin, “The River Alazeya: Shifting socio-ecological systems connected to a northeastern Siberian river,” Arctic 74, 67–86 (2021). https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic72238

  17. T. Mustonen and N. Huusari, “How to know about waters? Finnish traditional knowledge related to waters and implications for management reforms,” Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 30, 699–718 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-020-09619-7

  18. B. A. Revich and M. A. Podolnaya, “Thawing of permafrost may disturb historic cattle burial grounds in East Siberia,” Global Health Action 4, 8482 (2011). https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v4i0.8482

  19. N. P. Tarabukina, M. P. Neustroev, M. P. Skryabina, A. M. Stepanova, S. I. Parnikova, A. A. Bylgaeva, M. M. Neustroev, “The role of bacillus bacteria in conservation of the remains of mammoth in permafrost,” Probl. Reg. Ecol., No. 6, 22–27 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  20. B. N. Porfiriev and D. O. Eliseev, “An integrated approach to the economic assessment of the permafrost degradation effects on resilience of fixed assets in the Russian Arctic,” Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 176–184 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Meeting on the development of the Arctic zone with the President of the Russian Federation. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68188.

  22. The bill on permafrost monitoring was adopted in the first reading. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/885234.

Download references

Funding

The article was prepared as part of research on the topic FMGW-2022-0009 “Creation of a methodology for developing decarbonization scenarios for global and Russian economies, in particular for key industries; establishing a research and methodological foundation for the second stage of adaptation to climate change for the period up to 2025 (taking into account the experience of implementing the first stage of adaptation to climate change for the period up to 2022)” of the state assignment to the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, part of the Critical Innovation Project of National Significance (VIP GZ) for the development of a unified national monitoring system for climatically active substances approved by Order of the Government of the Russian Federation no. 2515-r dated September 2, 2022.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    B. N. Porfiriev & D. O. Eliseev

Authors
  1. B. N. Porfiriev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. D. O. Eliseev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to B. N. Porfiriev.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by A. Ovchinnikova

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Porfiriev, B.N., Eliseev, D.O. Scenario Forecasts of Expected Damage from Permafrost Degradation: Regional and Industry Issues. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 651–659 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723050143

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723050143

Keywords:

Search

Navigation