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Impact of Electric Vehicle Development on Energy Consumption: Risks and Opportunities for the Russian Economy

  • INDUSTRIES AND INTERINDUSTRY COMPLEXES
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Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article discusses various aspects of the impact made by the development of the electric vehicle market on the Russian economy. A model is presented for forecasting future sales and fleet of electric vehicles by the world regions. Two forecast scenarios and predictions of the global demand for energy resources from the fleet until 2050 have been developed. The directions of influence that the processes of global transition to electric vehicles may exert on the Russian economy are shown. The current plans for implementing on-going development of electric vehicles in Russia are also presented. Directions and additional new guidelines for industrial policy in this area are proposed, including taking into account the new conditions for the development of the Russian economy are discussed.

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Notes

  1. Global EV sales for 2022 H1. https://www.ev-volumes.com/.

  2. Automakers to double spending on EVs, batteries to $1.2 trillion by 2030. https://reut.rs/3gQQ79x.

  3. The weight of passenger cars is up to 3.5 tons; the weight of light commercial vehicles is also up to 3.5 tons, including pickups, vans, and three-wheelers; and heavy commercial vehicles are those with weight exceeding 3.5 tons.

  4. For more details, see J.-K. Rostovskii and N. A. Galkin, “Forecast of capacities for the production of electric vehicles until 2050 taking into account possible restrictions in the production of batteries,” in Proceedings of the XXIII All-Russian Symposium on Strategic Planning and Development of Enterprises, Ed. by G. B. Kleiner (Central Econ. Math. Inst., Moscow, 2022), pp. 510–512. https://doi.org/10.34706/978-5-8211-0802-9-s5-11.

  5. From dirty oil to clean batteries. https://bit.ly/3VpFM3m.

  6. How long should an electric car’s battery last? https://www.myev.com/research/ev-101/how-long-should-an-electric-cars-battery-last.

  7. Autostat Analytical Agency: The Russian market for new electric vehicles tripled in 2021. https://bit.ly/3DXBhaj.

  8. Autostat Analytical Agency: There are 45.5 million passenger cars in Russia. https://www.autostat.ru/news/50925/.

  9. http://static.government.ru/media/files/bW9wGZ2rDs3BkeZHf7ZsaxnlbJzQbJJt.pdf.

  10. Vast lithium reserves to transform Afghanistan from aid to trade economy. https://bit.ly/3P3pVVF.

  11. Rosatom accumulates lithium. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4919729.

  12. Rosatom began building Russia’s first “gigafactory” of energy storage. https://lenta.ru/news/2022/10/14/gigafabrica/.

  13. Unlocking growth in battery cell manufacturing for electric vehicles. https://mck.co/3iRezrG.

  14. KAMAZ informed about the time of launching the serial electric smart crossover “Kama-1.” https://bit.ly/3Bme1jU.

  15. From 2024, Moskvich will be based on the Kama electric vehicle platform. https://bit.ly/3H5qQmx.

  16. Information about the first Moskvich has been declassified: the capital plant began production of a crossover to replace the Renault Duster. https://bit.ly/3UDIhOc.

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  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    J.-K. Rostovski

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Translated by I. Pertsovskaya

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Rostovski, JK. Impact of Electric Vehicle Development on Energy Consumption: Risks and Opportunities for the Russian Economy. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 353–362 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723030139

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