Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Development of the Novosibirsk Transport System until 2045: Analysis and Scenario Forecast

  • INDUSTRIES AND INTERINDUSTRY COMPLEXES
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article analyzes development prospects of the transport system of Novosibirsk. An important objective in the development of that city is improving its transport connectivity and reducing the burden on infrastructure, especially road infrastructure. The study includes an analysis of the functioning of public transport in Novosibirsk, formulation of three scenarios based on existing trends in the development of the city’s transport system, and overview of feasible and potential projects in this area. A toolkit for estimating indicators of the city’s transport system is developed. Calculations of the volume and structure of passenger traffic by transport type are performed for the three transport policy scenarios. It is shown that reducing private car use requires significant budget expenditures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. I. N. Pugachev, et al., Strategy for the Development of Transport Systems of Russian Cities (Tikhookean. Gos. Univ., Khabarovsk, 2017) [in Russian].

  2. On approval of the action plan (“road map”) “Improving the quality of the road network of the city of Khabarovsk”: Decree of the Khabarovsk city administration no. 3200 of August 16, 2013, ed. of December 28, 2018. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/465310206. Cited December 26, 2022.

  3. A. E. Gorev, “Development of urban transport systems in large cities,” Transp. Ross. Fed., No. 6 (67), 50–53 (2016).

  4. V. M. Prikhod’ko, “Modern traffic control systems in megacities,” Transp. Ross. Fed., No. 9 (9), 79–81 (2007).

  5. L. Steg, “Can public transport compete with the private car?,” IATSS Res. 27 (2), 27–35 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. M. Kawabata, “Job access and employment among low-skilled autoless workers in US metropolitan areas,” Environ. Plann. A 35 (9), 1651–1668 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. J. Anable, “Complacent car addicts’ or ‘aspiring environmentalists’? Identifying tavel behaviour segments using attitude theory,” Transp. Policy 12 (1), 65–78 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. L. Steg, “Car use: Lust and must. Instrumental, symbolic and affective motives for car use. Transportation research part A,” Policy Pract. 39 (2–3), 147–162 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  9. V. R. Vuchik, Transport in Cities Convenient for Life (Territ. Budushchego, Moscow, 2011) [in Russian].

  10. G. Beirao and J. A. S. Cabral, “Understanding attitudes towards public transport and private car: A gualitative study,” Transp. Policy 14, 478–489 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. A. Nurdden, R. Rahmat, and A. Ismail, “Effect of transportation policies on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia,” J. Appl. Sci. 7, 1013–1018 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. W. L. Chee and J. L. Fernandez, “Factors that influence the choice of mode of transport in Penang: A preliminary analysis,” Proc. Soc. Behav. Sci. 91, 120–127 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. G. Smith, J. Sochor, and I. Karlsson, “Mobility as a service: Development scenarios and implications for public transport,” Res. Transp. Econ. 69, 592–599 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. On the integrated scheme for organizing traffic in the city of Novosibirsk for 2020–2034: Decree of the mayor’s office of the city of Novosibirsk no. 2200 of July 22, 2020. https://novo-sibirsk.ru/upload/iblock/06b/ 2020_-post_2200.pdf. Cited December 26, 2022.

  15. E. M. Lobanov, “Transport problems of modern large cities,” Transp. Ross. Fed., No. 1 (1), 29–31 (2005).

  16. A. A. Lents, “Formation of the urban planning concept ‘Countable City’,” Archit. Mod. Inf. Technol. 46 (1), 278–289 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  17. M. E. Koryagin and K. L. Komarov, “Optimization of the urban transport system with various purposes of municipal authorities, transport operators and passengers,” Vestn. Sib. Gos. Univ. Putei Soobshch., No. 4 (47), 36–41 (2018).

  18. Transport strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 with a forecast for the period up to 2035. Approved by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation no. 3363-r of November 27, 2021. http://static.government.ru/media/files/7enYF2uL5kFZlOOpQh-Ll0nUT91RjCbeR.pdf. Cited December 26, 2022.

  19. Transport strategy of Novosibirsk oblast until 2030. Siberian State University of Railways by order of the Ministry of Transport of the Government of the Novosibirsk Region in partnership with the Urban Planning Laboratory (St. Petersburg) of January 30, 2019. https://mintrans.nso.ru/page/2667. Cited December 26, 2022.

  20. R. E. Artamonov, et al., Evaluation of the Socio-Economic Effect of the Publication of Open Data on the Example of Public Transport Data in Moscow (Vysshaya Shkola Ekon., Moscow, 2015) [in Russian].

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    S. R. Milyakin & N. D. Skubachevskaya

Authors
  1. S. R. Milyakin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. N. D. Skubachevskaya
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. R. Milyakin.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by A. Ovchinnikova

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Milyakin, S.R., Skubachevskaya, N.D. Development of the Novosibirsk Transport System until 2045: Analysis and Scenario Forecast. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 363–371 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723030097

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723030097

Keywords:

Search

Navigation