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On the Issue of the Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Russian Agriculture in the Long Term

Abstract

The article analyzes the impact of global climate change on the productivity of domestic agriculture and on the prospects for its long-term development. The conclusion about the moderately negative contribution of the climatic factor to the forecast dynamics of agricultural production and exports is substantiated.

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Fig. 1.

Notes

  1. That is, the sum of the average daily air temperatures is above +10°C (per year).

  2. The RCP 4.5 scenario assumes a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions after 2040 and a warming to 2°C in 2046–2065 (compared with the level of 1986–2005), and the RCP 8.5 scenario, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions up to 2100 and a warming to 2.6°C in 2046–2065.

  3. The methodology and key results of our calculations are presented in [12]. The scenario of inertial growth in grain production should be considered as very optimistic and ambitious – it can be realized in the conditions of a high conjuncture of foreign markets, large-scale expansion of export infrastructure and state support for grain transportation from regions remote from export terminals. Otherwise, the rate of increase in the level of intensification and production volumes will be lower.

  4. To move from the basic to the adjusted scenario, the previously obtained forecast estimates of the yield of grain crops in various macroregions was changed for the average yield of 2013–2017, multiplied by the relative increase in yield in the RCP 8.5 scenario (see Table 1).

  5. The reserves of the intervention fund decreased by 8.2 million tons – from 9.6 million tons on July 1, 2010 to 1.4 million tons on July 1, 2013.

  6. With the expansion of irrigated areas, crop yields in arid territories may exceed projected values in the basic scenario.

  7. According to FAO estimates, for the period of 2011–2050, climate-related yield growth in Canada may be 27%, in the EU countries 16%, in Mexico 8%, in Russia 4%, while in African countries there will be a decrease in productivity by 12%, in South Asia and India by 5% [14, p. 22].

  8. According to Rosstat [11], the number of cattle decreased from 27.5 million units in 2000 to 18.2 million units in 2018, and the number of cows from 12.7 million units to 7.9 million units. The main factor in reducing the number of livestock was the increase in annual milk yield per cow (from 2.5 thousand kg/year to 4.5 thousand kg/year) at stagnation of domestic milk production.

  9. They can be repressive (“carbon tax”) or supportive (subsidizing capital and operating costs of agricultural producers to the transition to resource-saving technologies).

  10. Additional restrictions may be imposed by external consumers due to the admission to their markets of only “environmentally friendly” agricultural products produced using resource-saving technologies. At the same time, Russian exports are so far focused on deliveries to “poor” countries, for which the main criterion is the price of the product, and not the volume of greenhouse gas emissions from its production.

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Correspondence to D. A. Polzikov.

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Translated by S. Avodkova

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Ksenofontov, M.Y., Polzikov, D.A. On the Issue of the Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Russian Agriculture in the Long Term. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 31, 304–311 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700720030089

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700720030089