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Tools for Analyzing Social Policies That Ensure the Recovery of Economic Growth in Russia (Part I)

  • SOCIAL PROBLEMS
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Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article (part I) describes a modification of the forecast calculation system for analyzing the effect of social policies and their parameters on the growth rates of the Russian economy developed at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Part II presents the variants of forecast calculations for formulating guidelines for social policies to ensure the recovery of the growth of the Russian economy. A comparative analysis is given of measures to stimulate the economy and the underlying theoretical structures used in Europe, the United States, and China in 2008–2009 and at present. Part II will be published in no. 6 of the journal.

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Notes

  1. The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in 2018 does not make it possible to say that the last one was overcome and the country entered a trajectory of sustainable economic growth.

  2. The indicators given hereinafter are calculated based on official Rosstat data unless specifically noted otherwise.

  3. One of the growth factors for deposits in 2015 was the sharp devaluation of the ruble at the end of 2014 followed by the revaluation of the ruble equivalent of foreign currency deposits. However, only a quarter of the increase in deposits was due to the currency revaluation in 2015 according to the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA).

  4. This method is based on the results obtained in mathematical theory of indices and factor analysis [3].

REFERENCES

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  2. M. Yu. Matovnikov, “Savings activity of the population of Russia,” Den’gi Kredit, No. 9 (2015).

  3. A. V. Suvorov, N. V. Suvorov, E. E. Balashova, O. N. Boldov, N. V. Bondarenko, V. G. Grebennikov, V. N. Ivanov, M. D. Krasil’nikova, and S. V. Treshchina, Human Capital as a Factor of Russia’s Socio-Economic Development (OOO Nestor–Istoriya, St. Petersburg, 2016) [in Russian].

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  4. A. V. Suvorov, N. V. Suvorov, V. G. Grebennikov, V. N. Ivanov, and O. N. Boldov, “Assessments of the dynamics and structure of human capital for the Russian economy for 1991–2012,” Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 26 (2), 101–109 (2015).

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  5. N. V. Suvorov, A. V. Suvorov, V. G. Grebennikov, V. N. Ivanov, E. E. Balashova, and O. N. Boldov, “Assessment of the impact of human capital on economic growth,” Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 27 (5), 495–509 (2016).

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Funding

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 18-010-00456 (Determining Social Policies That Ensure the Recovery of Economic Growth in Russia).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Suvorov, O. N. Boldov, V. N. Ivanov, G. M. Sukhorukova & A.I. Budanova

Authors
  1. A. V. Suvorov
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  2. O. N. Boldov
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  3. V. N. Ivanov
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  4. G. M. Sukhorukova
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  5. A.I. Budanova
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. V. Suvorov.

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Translated by O. Pismenov

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Suvorov, A.V., Boldov, O.N., Ivanov, V.N. et al. Tools for Analyzing Social Policies That Ensure the Recovery of Economic Growth in Russia (Part I). Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 30, 514–522 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700719050150

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700719050150

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