Abstract
A forecast of the energy intensity of the Russian GDP in 2020 has been prepared based on a one-factor regression model and using statistical data on the internal consumption of fuel-energy resources and GDP in 2000–2008. According to the obtained regression equation, the bulk of consumption of fuel-energy resources does not depend on the GDP size (i.e., the constant term of regression is 768 tce), while the part of fuel-energy resource consumption depending on the GDP was 214 tce for 2007, or 21.8% of the total consumption. The calculated consumption elasticity coefficient of the GDP primary fuel-energy resources is 0.17. It is shown that the objective of 40% decrease of GDP energy intensity by 2020 against that of 2007 is a challenging task taking into account the economic crisis of 2008–2009 and the difficult process of overcoming it in 2010–2012.
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Original Russian Text © A.I. Kuzovkin, 2010.
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Kuzovkin, A.I. Forecast for GDP energy intensity in 2020: Russia and other developed countries. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 21, 328–331 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700710030111
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700710030111