Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling the economy’s need for professionally trained personnel

  • Labor and Employment
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract

Algorithms and mathematical models that help predict, on the basis of macroeconomic analysis, the needs of regional economies for professionals with higher, secondary, and basic vocational education and form the enrolment plans of educational establishments on the basis of these needs are considered. The model is based on the matrices of profession-qualification matches; it uses job rotation coefficients and average annual employment data by industry and by education level. The methodology of predicting the needs for vocational education graduates is standardized for all the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. V. V. Putin, “Message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of May 10, 2006” [Electronic resource] http://president.kremlin.ru. Data of June 1, 2006.

  2. V. N. Vasil’ev, V. A. Gurtov, E. A. Pitukhin, and M. N. Surovov, “Synthesis of Information and Analysis” Vysshee Obraz. Rossii, No. 2 (2003) [in Russian].

  3. V. N. Vasil’ev, V. A. Gurtov, E. A. Pitukhin, et al., The Labor Market and the Educational Services Market in Russian Federation Members (Tekhnosfera, Moscow, 2006) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  4. E. A. Pitukhin and V. A. Gurtov, Mathematical Modeling of Dynamic Processes in the Economy—Labor Market—Vocational Education System (Izd-vo. St. Petersburg Univ., 2006) [in Russian].

  5. V. A. Kolemaev, Mathematical Economics: College Textbook, 3rd Reptint Ed. (YuNITI-DANA, Moscow, 2005) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  6. S. V. Dubovskii, Computational Experiments with a Macromodel of an Unstable Russian Economy. Modeling of Sociopolitical and Economic Dynamics (RGSU, Moscow, 2004) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  7. E. A. Pitukhin, “A Mathematical Model for Computing the Required Number of Employees in Economic Sectors in Relation to the Efficiency of Innovative Technologies,” Obozr. Prikl. Promyshl. Mat. 12(3) (2005).

  8. A. G. Korovkin, Dynamics of Employment and Labor Market. Questions of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (MAKS Press, Moscow, 2001) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  9. A. F. Kiselev, A. Ya. Savel’ev, and B. A. Sazonov, The Educational Potential of Russia: Present State and Development (Mosk. Gos. Univ., Moscow) [in Russian].

  10. A. Yu. Apokin and E. V. Lebedinskaya, “Forecast of Change in the Student Body in 2006–2008,” in Prospects for Development and Modernization of the Economics of Higher Professional Education: Collected Papers (GU-VShE, Moscow, 2006) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  11. E. A. Pitukhin and V. A. Gurtov, “Modeling the Flows of Secondary School Graduate across Russian Federation Regions,” Obozr. Prikl. Promyshl. Mat. 10(2) (2003).

  12. V. A. Gurtov, L. Ya. Berezin, V. A. Matveev, and S. V. Sigova, Economic Growth Priorities of Russian Federation Members (Izd-vo “Kuchkovo pole,” Moscow, 2005) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  13. V. A. Gurtov and E. A. Pitukhin, “A Mathematical Model of Demand and Supply Forecasting at the Labor Market in Russian Regions,” Obozr. Prikl. Promyshl. Mat. 11(3) (2004).

  14. A. D. Nastenko and T. V. Vasina, Forecasting Industrial and Regional Development (Gelios ARV, Moscow, 2002) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  15. A. G. Korovkin, K. N. Dolgova, and I. B. Korolev, “Labor Shortage in the Russian Economy: A Macroeconomic Estimate,” Probl. Prognozir. 17(4) (2006) [Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 17 (2) (2006)].

  16. V. A. Gurtov, A. G. Mezentsev, and E. A. Pitukhin, “Modeling a Regional Economy’s Need for Higher Professional Education Graduates,” Regionologiya, Nos. 1–2 (2003).

  17. V. A. Gurtov and E. A. Pitukhin, “Modeling Regional Economies’ Need for Higher Professional Education Graduates,” Obozr. Prikl. Promyshl. Mat. 10(2) (2003).

  18. V. N. Vasil’ev, V. A. Gurtov, and E. A. Pitukhin, “Formalization of a Mathematical Model for Forecasting Regional Economies’ Need for Specialists with Professional Education,” in Demand and Supply at the Labor Market and the Educational Services Market in Russian Regions: Collected Papers. In 3 Books (Izd-vo PetrGU, Petrozavodsk, 2004), Book 1, http://labourmarket.ru?Pages/confl/book.shtml [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  19. V. A. Gurtov, E. A. Pitukhin, and L. M. Potupalova, “Forecasting a Regional Labor Market’s Need for Professionally Trained Specialists” in Demand and Supply at the Labor Market and the Educational Services Market in Russian Regions: Collected Papers. In 3 Books (Izd-vo PetrGU, Petrozavodsk, 2005), Book 1, http://labourmarket.ru?Pages/confl/book.shtml [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  20. V. A. Gurtov, E. A. Pitukhin, and L. M. Potupalova, “Methods of Development of Planned Targets for Student Enrolment in Professional Education Institutions Based on Labor Market Demand and Supply Analysis,” Obozr. Prikl. Promyshi. Mat. 13(2) (2006).

  21. Russian Regions. Socioeconomic Indicators 2006: Statistical Abstract (Rosstat, Moscow, 2007), Part 2 [in Russian].

  22. Russian Regions. Socioeconomic Indicators 2006: Statistical Abstract (Rosstat, Moscow, 2007), Part 2 [in Russian].

  23. A. F. Grishin, S. F. Kotov-Darti, and V. N. Yagunov, Statistical Models in Economics (Izd. dom “Feniks,” Rostov, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  24. “Modernizing the Regional Education System: Results, Problems, and Approaches,” in 6th Siberian Education Forum: Collected Papers (Tomsk, 2007) [in Russian].

Download references

Authors
  1. V. A. Gurtov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. E. A. Pitukhin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. L. M. Serova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Original Russian Text © V.A. Gurtov, E.A. Pitukhin, L.M. Serova, 2007.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gurtov, V.A., Pitukhin, E.A. & Serova, L.M. Modeling the economy’s need for professionally trained personnel. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 18, 622–633 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700707060068

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700707060068

Keywords

Search

Navigation