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A tectonophysical model of a seismic zone: Experience of development based on the example of the Baikal rift system

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Abstract

It is shown that different well-known models of earthquake sources explain the origin of a particular seismic event, but they do not reflect the overall geodynamic situation in a seismic zone and they cannot be used for understanding the regular patterns of the seismic process as a whole and for its prediction. On the basis of well-studied fractural tectonics and seismicity of the Baikal rift system, a tectonophysical model of seismic zone is proposed. The conceptual basis of the tectonophysical model of a seismic zone is as follows: the fracture-block medium of the brittle part of the lithosphere, the sufficiently frequent activation of faults of different ranks in real time, initiated by the deformation waves of different lengths and velocities, and seismic events consecutively proceeding predominantly along one of the directions of the specific activated faults. A seismic process in any particular part of the zone can be stimulated by the presence of fluids, by induced seismicity or by other factors. The developed tectonophysical model of the seismic process offers the possibilities of the utilization of the contemporary geo-information systems for the calculations during the assigned time interval of the sequential regular patterns of activations of faults, and within the boundaries of the regions of their dynamic influence, the succession of the appearance of separate sources. The model and the theoretically possible calculations on its basis bring one closer to the medium- and short-term prediction of earthquakes.

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  1. Institute of Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Lermontova ul.128, 664033, Russia

    S. I. Sherman

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Original Russian Text © S.I. Sherman, 2009, published in Fizika Zemli, 2009, No. 11, pp. 8–21.

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Sherman, S.I. A tectonophysical model of a seismic zone: Experience of development based on the example of the Baikal rift system. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 45, 938–951 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351309110020

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