Abstract
A step-by-step scheme of space-time earthquake probability prediction is constructed as a realization of a general mathematical model. The scheme uses four predictors based on concepts of fracture. Prediction results for California and the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake region are presented. Dangers inherent in the use of purely empirical predictors are discussed. An upper estimate is obtained for the admissible number of predictor parameters.
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Original Russian Text © V.M. Ghertzik, 2008, published in Fizika Zemli, 2008, No. 3, pp. 22–39.
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Ghertzik, V.M. Physical concepts of fracture and prediction of probabilities of strong earthquakes. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 44, 193–208 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351308030038
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351308030038