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Nonlinear regular features in the development of the seismic process in time

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Abstract

This work is a certain stage in investigations devoted to the recognition and examination of the seismic process dynamics in order to assess prospects and elaborate recommendations for the prediction of very strong earthquakes. The work is based on the use of the second-order differential equation, the so-called equation of the dynamics of self-developing processes, as an approximation model. Nine seismic catalogs including information about more than 1.5 million earthquakes were analyzed. The time behavior of three parameters characterizing the seismic process development, namely, the number of seismic events, accumulated conventional strain, and total energy of the events, was examined in terms of the model approximation. More than 17 000 well-defined seismic sequences of activation and attenuation were revealed using these parameters. The sequences account for about 38.5% of the total number of earthquakes from the catalogs studied. The remaining earthquakes belong to sequences of stationary development (in the form of background seismicity and earthquake swarms) and ill-defined sequences of activation and attenuation. The presence of stable regular patterns in the nonlinear development of the seismic process in time makes this process basically predictable. However, additional investigations are required for direct practical use of the regular features revealed in this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Zavaritskii Institute of Geology and Geochemistry, Ural Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pochtovyi per. 7, Yekaterinburg, 620219, Russia

    A. I. Malyshev

  2. Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics (IMGG), Far East Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Nauki 2, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693022, Russia

    I. N. Tikhonov

Authors
  1. A. I. Malyshev
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  2. I. N. Tikhonov
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Original Russian Text © A.I. Malyshev, I.N. Tikhonov, 2007, published in Fizika Zemli, 2007, No. 6, pp. 37–51.

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Malyshev, A.I., Tikhonov, I.N. Nonlinear regular features in the development of the seismic process in time. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 43, 476–489 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351307060067

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351307060067

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