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Study of Precursors of Strong Earthquakes Calculated from Space Geodesic Data

  • GEOINFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
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Abstract

A number of seismically active regions are equipped with sufficiently dense networks of GPS receiving stations that monitor the displacements of Earth’s surface. In this paper, we consider the experimental results and the geophysical interpretation of the estimation of the efficiency of earthquake precursors calculated from space geodesic data. A precursor is effective for forecasting if the field values of this precursor before strong earthquakes near their epicenters in most cases take anomalous values, and in places where strong earthquakes are not expected, these values are observed much less frequently. The results of the study are obtained based on the data of regions of Japan and California. Space geodesic data are represented by the average daily time series of horizontal displacements of Earth’s surface. The minimal alarm area method was used to predict earthquakes. We show the statistical of the efficiency of using spatiotemporal fields of changes in deformation rate invariants as earthquake precursors.

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Funding

The study was supported in part by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant no. 20-07-00445.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, 127051, Moscow, Russia

    V. Gitis & A. Derendyaev

  2. Institute of Theory of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997, Moscow, Russia

    M. Rodkin

  3. Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 693022, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Sakhalin oblast, Russia

    M. Rodkin

  4. First Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, 300180, Tianjin, China

    Y. Wu & J. Zhao

Authors
  1. V. Gitis
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  2. M. Rodkin
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  3. A. Derendyaev
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  4. Y. Wu
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  5. J. Zhao
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to V. Gitis, M. Rodkin, A. Derendyaev, Y. Wu or J. Zhao.

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The authors declare that they do not have a conflict of interest.

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Translated by A. Ivanov

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Gitis, V., Rodkin, M., Derendyaev, A. et al. Study of Precursors of Strong Earthquakes Calculated from Space Geodesic Data. J. Commun. Technol. Electron. 67 (Suppl 1), S185–S194 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064226922130125

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064226922130125

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