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The Waldmeier rule and early diagnostics of the maximum of the current solar cycle

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Abstract

The well known Waldmeier rule and its modifications applied to forecasting of the solar activity are discussed. The maximum annual mean rate of the increase in the magnetic flux observed on the growth branch of the cycle is proposed as a predicting (diagnosing) parameter for the amplitude of the cycle currently in progress. The maximum Wolf number of the current (24th) cycle is estimated to reach 104 (±12) or more, and to occur in 2013 or later. The yearly average Wolf numbers observed during the 24th cycle are presented.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pulkovo Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pulkovskoe shosse 65, St. Petersburg, 196140, Russia

    Yu. A. Nagovitsyn & A. I. Kuleshova

Authors
  1. Yu. A. Nagovitsyn
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  2. A. I. Kuleshova
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Correspondence to Yu. A. Nagovitsyn.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © Yu.A. Nagovitsyn, A.I. Kuleshova, 2012, published in Astronomicheskii Zhurnal, 2012, Vol. 89, No. 10, pp. 883–887.

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Nagovitsyn, Y.A., Kuleshova, A.I. The Waldmeier rule and early diagnostics of the maximum of the current solar cycle. Astron. Rep. 56, 800–804 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1063772912090065

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1063772912090065

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