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Glasgow-2021: The Difficult Road to the 1.5°С Goal

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Abstract

The possible consequences of decisions of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Glasgow, 2021) for the world energy and anthropogenic climate changes are investigated. A group of scenarios of the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system is proposed including the implementation of Glasgow solutions in the field of decarbonization of the world economy, reduction of methane emissions, and reforestation. It is shown that there is a technical potential for implementing the Glasgow decisions, but the desired pace of reformation of the world energy and the entire economy is unprecedented on a historical scale. Using the global carbon cycle and climate models developed at MPEI, the changes in the chemical composition, the thermal radiative balance of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the global average air temperature for each of the scenarios are calculated. It is shown that the implementation of the entire range of measures proposed in Glasgow for reducing the anthropogenic impact on the planetary climate system can limit the warming to within 1.5°C of the pre-industrial level, but there are serious doubts about the practical implementation of the proposed program of decarbonization of the world economy.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work used data from the UN Statistical and Demographic Departments (UN, https://data.un.org/), British Petroleum (BP, https://www.bp.com), the database for global atmospheric research of the European Commission EDGAR (https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu), the US Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC, http://cdiac.ornl.gov), IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch), the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA/ESRL, ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/), the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ ), the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute (GCCSI, http://www.globalccsinstitute.com), the UN Forestry and Agriculture Organization (FAO, http://www.fao.org/faostat/), and the European Data Bank for Climate Research WMO (KNMI, https://climexp.knmi.nl).

Funding

This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 20-19-00721 in part of climate studies, and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 20-08-00320 in part of energy studies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research University MPEI, 111250, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina & A. G. Tereshin

  2. Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117333, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina & A. G. Tereshin

Authors
  1. V. V. Klimenko
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  2. O. V. Mikushina
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  3. A. G. Tereshin
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to V. V. Klimenko or A. G. Tereshin.

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Translated by V. Bukhanov

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Klimenko, V.V., Mikushina, O.V. & Tereshin, A.G. Glasgow-2021: The Difficult Road to the 1.5°С Goal. Dokl. Phys. 67, 215–221 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028335822070023

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