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Prediction of the Impact of the Environmental State in the Area of a Copper–Nickel Plant Based on the Balanced Identification Technology

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Abstract

Modeling of the dynamics of the nickel concentration in soils, water, and bottom sediments of lakes, caused by emissions into the atmosphere from the Pechenga Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula) over the entire period of its operation, is considered. The technology of balanced identification, which makes it possible based on mathematical description of inhomogeneous geochemical processes occurring in ecosystems to combine heterogeneous experimental data and to develop a computer model with an optimal balance of complexity and closeness to the data, is used. The results including estimates of the retrospective state of the simulated objects and a forecast of their dynamics until 2030 are presented and discussed. According to model calculations, the intensity of Ni accumulation in the soil was 2.4 and it was twice as high as in bottom sediments during the periods of maximum deposition (1980–2005). According to the forecast model, after the shutdown of the plant, Ni accumulation in bottom sediments will begin to decrease and Ni will slowly leach from the soil with an intensity of 0.2 mg/(m2 yr).

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Funding

This work was performed using the equipment of the Center for Collective Use “Complex of Simulation and Data Processing for Mega-Science Facilities” at the National Research Center Kurchatov Institute, http://ckp.nrcki.ru/. The studies were carried out under a State Assignment of Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, project no. FMUS-2019-0008.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Sokolov, N. A. Gashkina &  T. I. Moiseenko

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  1. A. V. Sokolov
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  2. N. A. Gashkina
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  3. T. I. Moiseenko
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Correspondence to A. V. Sokolov.

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Translated by L. Mukhortova

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Sokolov, A.V., Gashkina, N.A. & Moiseenko, T.I. Prediction of the Impact of the Environmental State in the Area of a Copper–Nickel Plant Based on the Balanced Identification Technology. Dokl. Earth Sc. 513, 1403–1410 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23601918

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23601918

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