Abstract
The variability of zonal trends of surface air temperature for the period 1979–2012 is analyzed using ensemble simulations with a general atmospheric circulation model (AGCM) with identical prescribed conditions at the lower boundary of the atmosphere and different initial conditions. It is shown that the dependence of the variability of intra-ensemble zonal temperature trends on the variability of zonal fluctuations of temperature anomalies (associated with the internal variability of atmospheric circulation in the AGCM) is described quite well in terms of the stationary stochastic process model. In such a model, the dependence of the standard deviation of intra-ensemble trends can be approximated by a linear function of the standard deviation of temperature fluctuations, which agrees well with the AGCM results.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
R. V. Bekryaev, I. V. Polyakov, and V. A. Alexeev, J. Clim. 23 (14), 3888–3906 (2010).
C. Deser, A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, Clim. Dyn. 38, 527–546 (2012).
A. Gelfan, V. A. Semenov, E. Gusev, Y. Motovilov, O. Nasonova, and I. Krylenko, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 2737–2754 (2015). doi 10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
D. L. Hartmann, A. M. G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, New York, 2013).
J. Keizer, Statistical Thermodynamics of Nonequilibrium Processes (Springer, New York, 1987).
C. E. Leith, J. Appl. Meteorol. 12, 1066–1069 (1973).
E. N. Lorenz, Meteorol. Monogr. 8 (30), 1–3 (1968).
N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, et al., J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D14), 4407 (2003). doi 10.1029/2002JD002670
E. Roeckner, G. Bauml, and L. Bonaventure, The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM5, Part 1: Model Description, Report 349 (Max Planck Inst. Meteorol., Hamburg, 2003).
B. D. Santer, P. W. Thorne, L. Haimberger, et al., Int. J. Climatol. 28, 1703–1722 (2008).
V. A. Semenov, M. Latif, J. H. Jungclaus, et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (11), (2008). doi 10.1029/2008gl033273
V. A. Semenov and M. Latif, Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 054020 (2015). doi 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020
D. W. J. Thompson, E. A. Barnes, C. Deser, et al., J. Clim. 48, 6433–6456 (2015).
M. Winton, A. Adcroft, S. V. M. Griffits, et al., J. Clim. 26, 231–246 (2013).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © P.F. Demchenko, V.A. Semenov, 2017, published in Doklady Akademii Nauk, 2017, Vol. 476, No. 3, pp. 339–342.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Demchenko, P.F., Semenov, V.A. Estimation of uncertainty in surface air temperature climatic trends related to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere. Dokl. Earth Sc. 476, 1105–1108 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X17090239
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X17090239