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Retrospective Prediction of Location and Intensity for Two Large Crustal Earthquakes in Iran and India

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Abstract

This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran (Mw = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 (M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σyy/σxx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions.

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Notes

  1. A blind fault is understood in (Walker et al., 2005) as a fault that does not emerge at the surface.

  2. With due account of possible errors within ±5 km or more in epicenter location.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We used equipment and materials supplied by the Analytical Center of Geomagnetic Data, Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences (http://ckp.gcras.ru/).

Funding

This work was supported through a government assignment of the RAS Geophysical Center approved by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Molodezhnaya 3, 119296, Moscow, Russia

    V. N. Morozov, A. I. Manevich & V. N. Tatarinov

  2. MISiS National University of Science and Technology, Leninsky Prosp. 4, 119049, Moscow, Russia

    A. I. Manevich

Authors
  1. V. N. Morozov
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  2. A. I. Manevich
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  3. V. N. Tatarinov
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Correspondence to A. I. Manevich.

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Translated by A. Petrosyan

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Morozov, V.N., Manevich, A.I. & Tatarinov, V.N. Retrospective Prediction of Location and Intensity for Two Large Crustal Earthquakes in Iran and India. J. Volcanolog. Seismol. 17, 219–227 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S074204632370015X

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