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Simulation of individual risk based on the results of exercise tests and analysis of risk factors

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Abstract

The materials of a cross-sectional and prospective Russian-US population study (the Russian Lipid Research Clinics Prevalence Study) have been used to develop models intended for estimating the probability of death from coronary heart disease, all cardiovascular disease, and all causes over 10 and 20 years. The prediction was performed by constructing artificial neural networks. Testing on an independent sample has shown an accuracy of 66–73%.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

    V. G. Vilkov, S. A. Shal’nova, A. D. Deev, S. S. Davydova, A. V. Kapustina & I. E. Koltunov

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  1. V. G. Vilkov
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  2. S. A. Shal’nova
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  3. A. D. Deev
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  4. S. S. Davydova
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  5. A. V. Kapustina
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  6. I. E. Koltunov
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Original Russian Text © V.G. Vilkov, S.A. Shal’nova, A.D. Deev, S.S. Davydova, A.V. Kapustina, I.E. Koltunov, 2006, published in Fiziologiya Cheloveka, 2006, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 42–48.

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Vilkov, V.G., Shal’nova, S.A., Deev, A.D. et al. Simulation of individual risk based on the results of exercise tests and analysis of risk factors. Hum Physiol 32, 410–415 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0362119706040050

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