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Climate Change and Threats to Water Security: A Review

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Abstract

An overview of publications on the hydrological consequences of climate change in the context of the ongoing and projected threats to water security is presented. Two hydrological indicators of water security are considered both at the global and regional scales: mean river flow regime as an indicator of the provision of the territory with surface water resources, as well as the flood regime, as an indicator of flood hazard. The paper is structured as follows. The first section briefly discusses the current understanding of the mechanisms of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on water resources and flood hazard. The second section considers the methodological aspects of constructing assessments of the ongoing changes in the river regimes, and reviews some of the estimates of changes in water resources and high river flow in the world and Russia. The third section is devoted to the global and regional assessments of future changes in the river runoff regime in the twenty-first century and discusses the methodological challenges of carrying out such assessments. The fourth section evaluates socio-economic consequences of the current and forecasted hydrological changes and their influence on water security. The paper is finalized by several summarizing remarks.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am grateful to Dr. Kharkhordin, Dr. Bychkova, Dr. Zhikharevich, and other colleagues from the European University at St. Petersburg for organizing a high-level meeting on climate change and its impacts on natural and social-economic systems and for inviting me to give a presentation on this meeting in March 2021. The main ideas of the presentation became the basis for this paper.

Funding

The paper was prepared within the framework of the State Assignment theme FMWZ-2022-0001 of Water Problems Institute of RAS.

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  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    A. N. Gelfan

  2. Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    A. N. Gelfan

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Gelfan, A.N. Climate Change and Threats to Water Security: A Review. Water Resour 50, 645–663 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807823600547

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