Abstract
The article analyzes the changes over 1976–2016 in the frequencies of agricultural droughts in the world, the coordinates of the centers of drought areas, the dates of the start and end of the droughts, their duration, material (financial) and humanitarian losses due to droughts in the world as a whole and separately for world regions with different levels of economic development. The changes in the number of droughts, the size of the global latitudinal band of droughts, their durations and dates of their ends were found to show a monotonous positive trend. A positive statistically significant trend in the evolution of material/financial losses due to droughts was also revealed and found to be more typical of the group of developing countries. It is hypothesized that changes in the natural characteristics of droughts may be due to global climate changes, while the dynamics of losses due to droughts is also determined by socioeconomic factors.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Dobrovol’skii, S.G., Global’naya gidrologiya. Protsessy i prognozy (Global Hydrology. Processes and Forecasts), Moscow: Geos, 2017.
Dobrovol’skii, S.G., Global’nye izmeneniya rechnogo stoka (Global Changes in River Flow), Moscow: Geos, 2011.
Dobrovol’skii, S.G., World droughts and their time evolution: agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological aspects, Water Resour., 2015, vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 147–158.
Pasechkina, V.Yu., Istomina, M.N., and Dobrovol’skii, S.G., Assessing the scales and risks of extreme socioeconomic and environmental situations in the world resulting from extreme hydrological phenomena (floods and droughts), Sb. nauch. tr. Vseros. nauch. konf. s mezhdunarod. uchastiem “Vodnye resursy: novye vyzovy i puti resheniya” (Coll. Sci. Works Russ. Sci. Conf. with Foreign Particip. “Water Resources: New Challenges and Ways to Their Solution”), Moscow: WPI RAS, 2017, pp. 525–531.
Chugunova A.V., Pyzhev A.I., and Pyzheva, Yu.I., Effect of global climate changes on the economics of forestry and agriculture: risks and potentialities, Aktual’n. Probl. Ekon. Prava, 2018, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 525–535.
Beck, H.E., van Dijk, A.I.J.M., Levizzani, V., Schellekens, J., Miralles, D., Martens, B., and de Roo A., MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25 global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2017, vol. 21, pp. 589–615.
Global Drought Observatory. https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo/php/index.php?id=2050. (Accessed 2020).
International Disaster Database. http://www.emdat.be/. Accessed 2020.
Mc, Cabe, G.J. and Wolock, D.M., Variability and trends in global drought, Earth and Space Sci., 2015, vol. 2, pp. 223–228.
Monjo, R., Roye, D., and Martin-Vide, J., Drought lacunarity around the world and its classification (Version, 0.1). Zenodo, 2019.https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3247041. (Accessed 2020).
Monjo, R., Martin-Vide, J., Daily precipitation concentration around the world according to several indices, Int. J. Climatol., 2016, vol. 36, pp. 3828–3838.
Privalsky, V.E. and Jensen, D.T., Time Series Analysis Package., Logan, UT: Utah Climate Center, 1993.
Rojas, O., Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS). www.sciencedirect.com/science /article/pii/S2212094718300999#bib6. (Accessed 2020).
Sheffild, J., Wood, E.F., and Roderick, M.L., Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature, 2012, vol. 491, pp. 435–440.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrao, H., Barbosa, P., and Vogt, J., World drought frequency, duration and severity for 1951–2010, Int. J. Climatol., 2014, vol. 34, pp. 2792–2804.
Van Hoolst, R., Eerens, H., Haensen, A., et al., FAO’s AVHRR-based Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) for global drought monitoring, Int. J. Remote Sens., 2016, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 418–439.
Vicente-Serrano, S., Begueria, S., and Lopez-Moreno, J., A Multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index—SPEI, J. Clim., 2010, vol. 23, pp. 1696–1718.
Vicente-Serrano, S., Van der Schrier, G., Begueria, S., Azorin-Molina, C., and Lopez-Moreno, J., Contribution of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration to drought indices under different climates, J. Hydrol., 2015, vol. 526, pp. 42–54.
Water Data, Portal. http://waterdata.iwmi.org/Applications/Drought_Patterns_Map/. (Accessed 2020).
Funding
The study was carried out under State Assignment to Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, subject FMWZ-2022-0001.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Translated by G. Krichevets
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dobrovol’skii, S.G., Istomina, M.N. & Lebedeva, I.P. Long-Term Variations of Agricultural Drought Parameters in the World. Water Resour 49, 259–270 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S009780782202004X
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S009780782202004X