Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

On the Effect of Intermittent Nonstationarity of Long-Term Changes in the River Runoff

  • Published:
Water Resources Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Based on the analysis of 162 longest (more than 100 years each) series of annual, maximal, and minimal runoff in rivers of different genetic types, the regularities of changes in the degree of stationarity/nonstationarity of the runoff changes are studied. It is shown that changes in the average annual and maximum runoff in the rivers of the “main” type—non-effluent, unregulated, as well as in the rivers of glacial feeding—throughout the period of observations generally correspond to the stationarity hypothesis. On the contrary, for a significant part of the runoff series of all types of effluents and regulated rivers, as well as the minimum flow of rivers of the main type, the alternation of segments of realizations of stationary and nonstationary processes with respect to mathematical expectation, is typical. To describe this effect, we propose the concept of “intermittent” nonstationarity. The nonstationarity parameters of the indicated type are compared with the nonstationarity parameters of the monotonous type.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 8.
Fig. 9.
Fig. 10.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. Dobrovolski, S.G., Anomalii global’nogo teplovlagoobmena (Anomalies of Global Heat and Moisture Exchange), Moscow: Sov. geofiz. Kom., 1991.

  2. Dobrovolski, S.G., Stochastic climate theory, Heidelberg et al.: Springer, 2000.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  3. Dobrovolski, S.G., Global’nyye izmeneniya rechnogo stoka (Global River Runoff Variations), Moscow: Geos, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Dobrovolski, S.G., Global’naya gidrologiya (Global Hydrology), Moscow: Geos, 2017.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Frolov, A.V. and Solomonova, I.V., Climatic heterogeneity in the long-term water-balance variations in the Northern Dvina basin, in Vodnyye resursy: novyye vyzovy i puti resheniya. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov: posvyashchayetsya Godu ekologii v Rossii i 50-letiyu Instituta vodnykh problem RAN (Water Resources: New Challenges and Ways to Solutions. Coll. Sci. Papers devoted to the Year of Ecology in Russia and the 50-th Anniversary of the Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences), Inst. vodn. probl. Ross. Akad Nauk, Ross. Inform-Analit. Nauch.-Issled. Vodokhoz. Tsentr, Novocherkassk: Lik, 2017, pp. 275–281.

  6. Georgiyevskiy, V.Yu., Variations of river runoff in Russia and Caspian Sea water balance under the effect of economic activity and global warming, Extended Abstract of Doct. Sci. Dissertation (Eng.), St. Petersburg, 2005, 275 p.

  7. Hasselmann, K., Stochastic climate models, Part I, Theory, Tellus, 1976, vol. V, no. 28, pp. 473–485.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Hasselmann, K., Construction and verification of stochastic climate models, Climatic Variations and Variability: Facts, Theories. Proc. Symp. “Milankovitch and Climate”, Berger A., Ed., Dordrecht et al.: D. Reidel. 1981, pp. 481–497.

  9. Kolmogorov, A.N., Osnovnyye ponyatiya teorii veroyatnostey (Principles of Probability Theory), 2nd Ed., Moscow: Nauka, 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Malinin, V.N., Statisticheskiye metody analiza gidrometeorologicheskoy informatsii (Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Hydrometeorological Data), St. Petersburg: Izd. Ross. Gos. Gidromet. Univ., 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Privalsky, V.Ye., Klimaticheskaya izmenchivost’ (stokhasticheskiye modeli, predskazuyemost’, spektry (Climate Variations: Stochastic Models, Predictability, Spectra), Moscow: Nauka, 1985.

  12. Privalsky, V.Ye., Panchenko V.A., Asarin Ye.Yu., Modeli vremennykh ryadov (Models of Time Series), St. Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Privalsky, V.E. and Jensen, D.T., Time Series Analysis Package. Autoregressive Time and Frequency Domain Analysis of Scalar and Multivariate Time Series, Logan, UT: Utah Climate Center, Utah University.

  14. Ratkovich, D.Ya., Mnogoletniye kolebaniya rechnogo stoka. Zakonomernosti i regulirovaniye (Long-Term Variations of River Runoff: Regularities and Regulation), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Ratkovich, D.Ya., Aktual’nyye problemy vodoobespecheniya (Urgent Problems of Water Supply), Moscow: Nauka, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Sakharyuk, A.V., Assessing the stationarity of long-term river-runoff variations, Trudy Gos. Gidrol. Inst., Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1981, no. 282, pp. 78–87.

  17. Solomonova, I.V. and Frolov, A.V., Heterogeneities in the long-term variations of river runoff and major hydroclimatic processes in the Northern Dvina basin under changing climate, Tret’i Vinogradovskiye Chteniya. Grani gidrologii. Sbornik dokladov mezhdunarodnoy nauchnoy konferentsii pamyati vydayushchegosya russkogo gidrologa Yuriya Borisovicha Vinogradova (Third Vinogradov Readings. Facets of Hydrology. Coll. Reports Intern. Sci. Conf. in Memory of Outstanding Russian Hydrologist Yu.B. Vinogradov), St. Petersburg: Naukoyem. Tekhnol., 2018, pp. 646–650.

  18. Ulrych, T.J. and Bishop T., Maximum entropy spectral analysis and autoregressive decomposition, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 1975, vol. 13, pp. 183–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Yaglom, A.M., An introduction to the theory of stationary random functions, Usp. Mat. Nauk., 1952, vol. 7, no. 5(51), pp. 3–168.

  20. Yaglom, A.M., An introduction to the theory of stationary random functions, Prentice-Hall, NJ, 1962.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Yaglom, A.M., Korrelyatsionnaya teoriya statsionarnykh sluchaynykh funktsiy. S primerami iz meteorologii (Correlation Theory of Stationary Random Functions with Examples from Meteorology), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Yaglom, A.M., Correlation theory of stationary and related random functions, vol. 1, Basic results, Berlin: Springer, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported by the FNI program of the state academies of sciences, project no. 0147-2018-0001 (State Registration no. AAAA-A18-118022090056-0) and by RFBR, project no 16-05-00734.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences,, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    I. V. Solomonova, V. P. Yushkov & S. G. Dobrovolski

Authors
  1. I. V. Solomonova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. P. Yushkov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. G. Dobrovolski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. G. Dobrovolski.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Solomonova, I.V., Yushkov, V.P. & Dobrovolski, S.G. On the Effect of Intermittent Nonstationarity of Long-Term Changes in the River Runoff. Water Resour 45 (Suppl 2), 99–109 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818060295

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818060295

Keywords:

Search

Navigation