Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Effect of the North Atlantic on the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea basin

  • Interaction Between Continental Waters and the Environment
  • Published:
Water Resources Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The cause of Caspian level variations is still to be found, and their forecasting is still among the problems to be solved. This study proposes a new approach based on the results of analysis of the effect the North Atlantic has on climate formation in the Caspian Sea basin. The article presents the results of analysis of moisture transport into the Caspian Sea basin, as well as a relationship between precipitation and temperature in this basin and the indices of atmospheric and oceanic circulation for the periods of Caspian level drop and rise. A pioneer study of moisture transport from the North Atlantic showed this transport to govern the formation of Caspian Sea level regime.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Golitsyn, G.S., Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A., and Sporyshev, P.V., Analysis and modeling of the hydrological regime variations in the Caspian Sea basin, Dokl. Earth Sci., 1999, vol. 366, no. 4, pp. 552–556.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Budyko, M.I., Efimova, H.A., and Lobanov, V.V., Future level of the Caspian Sea, Meteorol. Hydrol., no. 5, 1988, pp. 86–94.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Byshev, V.I., Neiman, V.G., Romanov, Yu.A., and Serykh, I.V., On El Niño’s impact upon the climate characteristics of the Indian Monsoon, Okeanologiya (Moscow), 2012, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 147–156.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Volodin, E.M. and Dianskii, N.A., Simulation of climate changes in the 20th-22nd centuries with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 2006, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 267–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Golitsyn, G.S., Dzyuba, A.V., Osipov, A.G., and Panin, G.N., Regional climate changes and their manifestations in the current level rise in the Caspian Sea, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1990, vol. 313, no. 5, pp. 1224–1227.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Gusev, A.V. and Dianskii, N.A., Numerical simulation of the World Ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948–2007 using the INMOM, Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2014, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 1–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Kazanskii, A.B., An approach to forecasting level increase in the Caspian Sea, Dokl. Akad. Nauk, 1994, vol. 338, no. 4, pp. 531–537.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Malinin, V.N., Problema prognoza urovnya Kaspiiskogo morya (Problem of Forecasting Caspian Sea Level), St. Petersburg: RGGMI, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Meleshko, V.P., Kattsov, V.M., Mirvis, V.M, Govorkova, V.A., and Pavlova, T.V., Climate of Russia in the 21st century. Part 1. New evidence of anthropogenic climate change and the state of the art of its simulation, Russ. Meteorol. Gidrol., 2008, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 341–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A., Khon, V.Ch., Latif, M., and Roekner, E., Connection between Eurasian and North Atlantic climate anomalies and natural variations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation based on long-term model calculations, Dokl. Earth. Sci., 2008, vol. 419A, no. 3, pp. 502–505.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A., and Karpenko, A.A., Assessments of the relationship of changes of the global surface air temperature with different natural and anthropogenic factors based on observations, Dokl. Earth. Sci., 2012, vol. 443, no. 1, pp. 381–387.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Panin, G.N., On climate changes in polar zones of the Earth in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2009, vol. 427A, no. 6, pp. 988–992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Panin, G.N., Climate changes in the polar zones of the Earth in the XX and XXI centuries, in Polyarnaya kriosfera i vody sushi (Polar Cryosphere and Continental Waters), Moscow: Paulsen, 2011, pp. 87–97.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Panin, G.N., Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., and Solomonova, I.V., Climate variations in North Eurasia in the last quarter of the XX century, in Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem (Problems of Environmental Monitoring and Ecosystem Modeling), Moscow: IGKE, 2011, pp. 99–115.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Panin, G.N., Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., and Solomonova, I.V., Regional climate varations in the Northern Hemisphere and their relationship with circulation indices, in Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem (Problems of Environmental Monitoring and Ecosystem Modeling), vol. XXIII, Moscow: IGKE, 2010, pp. 90–106.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Panin, G.N., Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., and Solomonova, I.V., Circulatioin indices and regional climate changes, in Polyarnaya kriosfera i vody sushi (Polar Cryosphere and Continental Waters), Moscow: Paulsen, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Panin, G.N. and Dianskii, N.A., On the correlation between oscillations of the Caspian Sea level and the North Atlantic climate, Izv. Atmos. Ocean Phys., 2014, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 266–277.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Panin, G.N., Mamedov, R., and Mitrofanov, I.V., Sovremennoe sostoyanie Kaspiiskogo morya (Current State of the Caspian Sea), Moscow: Nauka, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Panin, G.N., Nasonov, A.E., and Foken, T., Evaporation and heat exchange of a body of water with the atmosphere in a shallow zone, Izv. Atmos. Ocean Phys., 2006, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 337–352.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Panin, G.N., Solomonova, I.V., and Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., Analysis of climate trends in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Izv. RAN. Ser. Geogr., 2008, no. 6, pp. 31–41.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Panin, G.N., Solomonova, I.V., and Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., Climatic trends in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Water Resour., 2009, vol. 36, no. 6, pp. 718–730.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Panin, G.N., Solomonova, I.V., and Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., Specifics of climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere, Geores., Geoenerg., Geopol. http://oilgasjournal.ru/vol-2/articles/8.html

  23. Panin, G.N., Solomonova, I.V., and Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., Regional climate trends in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in Izmenenie okruzhayushchei sredy i klimata: prirodnye i svyazannye s nimi tekhnogennye katastrofy (Changes in the Environment and Climate: Natural and Accompanying Natural Catastrophes), vol. 3, Part 2: Prirodnye protsessy v polyarnykh oblastyakh zemli (Natural Processes in the Polar Zones of the Earth), Kotlyakov, V.M., Ed., Moscow: IG RAN, BAP RAN, 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Panin, G.N., Solomonova, I.V., and Vyruchalkina, T.Yu., Regime of water balance components of the Caspian Sea, Water Resour., 2014, vol. 41, no. 5, pp. 505–511.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Ratkovich, D.Ya., Current variations of the Caspian Sea level, Water Resour., 1993, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 160–171.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Semenov, V.A., Influence of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea on climate variability in the Arctic Region, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2008, vol. 418, no. 1, pp. 91–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Sotnikova, L.F. and Makarova, O.A., Studying the space and time variations of water abundance in Russian rivers, in Vodnye resursy i kachestvo vod: sostoyanie i problemy upravlenya (Water Resources and Quality: The State and Management Problems), Moscow: RASKhN, 2010, pp. 33–35.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Frolov, A.V., Modelirovanie mnogoletnikh kolebanii urovnya Kaspiiskogo morya: Teoriya i prilozheniya (Modeling Long-Term Variations of the Caspian Sea: Theory and Applications), Moscow: GEOS, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Khublaryan, M.G. and Naidenov, V.I., Nonlinear theory of level variations in natural water bodies, in Vody sushi: Problemy i resheniya (Continental Waters: Problems and Solutions), Moscow: IVP RAN, 1994, pp. 193–216.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Elguindi, N. and Giorgi, F., Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations, Geoph. Res. Letter, 2006, vol. 33, L08706.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Enfield, D.B., Mestas-Nunez, A.M., and Trimble, P.J., The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Rev. Lett., 2001, vol. 28, pp. 2077–2080.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Gill, A.E., Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics, New York: Academic Press, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Hurrell, J.W., Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation, Science (Washington, D.C.), 1995, vol. 269, pp. 676–679.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis., in Contribution of Working Group i to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M. et al. Eds., Cambridge: United Kingdom, N.Y., USA: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Jones, P.D., Jonsson, T., and Wheeler, D., Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland, Int. J. Climatol., 1997, vol. 17, pp. 1433–1450.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Leroy, S.A.G. and Arpe, K., Glacial refugia for summer-green trees in Europe and South-West Asia as proposed by echam 3 time-slice atmospheric model simulations, J. Biogeography, 2007, vol. 34, no. 12, pp. 2115–2128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333, Russia

    G. N. Panin, T. Yu. Vyruchalkina & I. V. Solomonova

Authors
  1. G. N. Panin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. T. Yu. Vyruchalkina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. I. V. Solomonova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to T. Yu. Vyruchalkina.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © G.N. Panin, T.Yu. Vyruchalkina, I.V. Solomonova, 2015, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2015, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 442–452.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Panin, G.N., Vyruchalkina, T.Y. & Solomonova, I.V. Effect of the North Atlantic on the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea basin. Water Resour 42, 525–534 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807815040090

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807815040090

Keywords

Search

Navigation