Abstract
A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnell, N.W., Effects of IPCC SRES emissions on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2003, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 619–641.
Arnell, N.W., Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 2004, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 31–52.
Arnell, N.W., Climate change and water resources: a global perspective, in Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., et al., Eds., Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2006, pp. 167–175.
Arora, V.K. and Boer, G.J., Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins, J. Geophys. Res., 2001, vol. 106, pp. 3335–3348.
Climate Change 2001. Contribution of WGI to the 3rd Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. vol. 1. The Sci. Basis, IPCC, 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/ipccwg1r.pdf
Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva: WMO, UNEP, 2007.
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.Ut4f4BuGj84
Dobrovolski, S.G., Changes in moisture abundance in large regions caused by climate changes, Osobennosti i zakonomernosti formirovaniya vod sushi. Protsessy vodoobmena. Mezhdunarodnaya programma geologicheskoi korrelyatsii (Specific Features and Regularities in Continental Water Formation. Water Exchange Processes. International Program of Geological Correlation), Moscow: IVP, 1986, pp. 103–123.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Anomalii global’nogo teplovlagoobmena (Anomalies of Global Heat and Moisture Exchange), Moscow: Sov. geofiz. kom., 1991.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Global Climatic Changes in Water and Heat Transfer-Accumulation Processes, Amsterdam-London-N.Y.-Tokyo: Elsevier, 1992.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Stochastic Climate Theory, Heidelberg-Berlin-N.Y.-Barcelona-Hong Kong-London-Milan-Paris-Singapore-Tokyo: Springer, 2000.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Klimaticheskie izmeneniya v sisteme “gidrosfera-atmosfera,” (Climate Changes in the Hydrosphere-Atmosphere) System M.: Geos, 2002.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Changes in climate and water balance components, Aktual’nye problem vodoobespecheniya (Urgent Problems of Water Supply), Ratkovich, D.Ya., Ed., Moscow: Nauka, 2003, pp. 119–130.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Changes in Ocean Characteristics and Their Forecasting, in Sovremennye global’nye izmeneniya prirodnoi sredy (Current Global Environmental Changes), Moscow: Nauchnyi mir, 2006, vol. 1, pp. 297–345.
Dobrovolski, S.G., The Issue of Global Warming and Changes in the Runoff of Russian Rivers, Water Resour., 2007, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 607–618.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Year-to-year and many-year runoff variations in world rivers, Water Resour., 2011, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 693–708.
Dobrovolski, S.G., Global’nye izmeneniya rechnogo stoka (Global Changes in River Runoff), Moscow: Geos, 2011.
Evstigneev, V.M. and Akimenko, T.A., Possible changes in river runoff on the northern slope of East European Plain in the 21st Century, Vestnik MGU, Ser. 5, Geografiya, 2005, no. 5, pp. 34–39.
Evstigneev, V.M., Kislov, A.V., and Sidorova, M.V., Effect of climate changes on annual river runoff in East European Plain in the 21st century, Vestnik MGU. Ser. 5, Geografiya, 2010, no. 26, pp. 3–10.
Gordon, A.H., Global change as a random walk, J. Climate, 1991, vol. 4, pp. 589–597.
Gosling, S.L. and Arnell, N.W., A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity, Climatic Change, August 2013, doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0853-x#/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0853-x#
Gosling, S.N., Bretherton, D., Haines, K., and Arnell, N.W., Global hydrology modeling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A: Math., Phys. Eng. Sci., 2013, vol. 368, pp. 4005–4021, rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org (Revised on November 6, 2013).
Gosling, S.N., Taylor, R.G., Arnell, N.W., et al., A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2011, vol. 15, pp. 279–294.
Haddeland, I., Clark, D.B., Franssen, W., et al., Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results, in Water and Global Change Watch, 2011, October, pp. 869–884.
Hunt, B.G., The stationarity of global mean climate, Int. J. Climatol., 2004, vol. 24, pp. 795–806.
Khromov S.P., Petrosyants M.A., Meteorologiya i klimatologiya (Meteorology and Climatology), Moscow: Izd-vo MGU, 2001.
Khublaryan, M.G., Dobrovolski, S.G., and Naidenov, V.I., Estimating possible changes in river runoff caused by global climate changes, Tez. Dokl. Vsemir. konf. po izmeneniyu klimata. Moskva, 29 sentyabrya-3 oktyabrya 2003 (Abstracts of Papers of World Conf. on Climate Changes, Moscow, September 29–October 3, 2003), Moscow: IGKE, 2003, p. 254.
Klimenko, V.V. and Klimenko, A.V., Global’noe poteplenie: vrag ili soyuznik? (Global Warming: an Enemy or an Ally), Moscow: IPEE MEI, 2010, www.energy2010.mpei.ru/_Files/KlimenkoVV.ppt.
Klimenko, V.V., Tereshin, A.G., and Mikushina, O.V., World power engineering and planetary climate in the 21st century in the context of historical trends, Ros. Khim. Zh., 2008, vol. LII, no. 6, pp. 11–17.
Labat, D., Godderis, Y., Probst, J.L., et al., Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming, Adv. Water Resour., 2004, vol. 27, pp. 631–642.
Legates, D.R., Lins, H.F., and McCabe, G.J., Comments on “Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming,” Labat et al., Adv. Water Resour., Eds., 2005, vol. 28, pp. 1310–1315.
Manabe, S. and Vezerold, R., Changes in water resources at centenary scale caused by global warming, Tez. dokl. Vsemir. konf. po izmeneniyu klimata, Moskva, 29 sentyabrya-3 oktyabrya 2003 (Abstracts of Papers of World Conf. on Climate Changes, Moscow, September 29–October 3, 2003), Moscow: IGKE, 2003, pp. 14–15.
McCabe, G.J., Jr. and Wolock, D.M., Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff, Climate Res., 1997, vol. 8, pp. 129–134.
Mirovoi vodnyi balans i vodnye resursy Zemli (World Water Balance and Earth Water Resources), L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A., and Khon, V.Ch., Estimates of possible regional changes in the hydrological regime in the 21st century based on global climate models, Izv. RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana, 2003, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 150–165.
Nijssen, B., O’Donnell, G.M., Hamlet, A.F., and Lettenmaier, D.P., Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climatic change, Clim. Change, 2001, vol. 50, pp. 143–175.
Sidorova, M.V., Estimates of river runoff changes in the 21st century in East European Plain. Extended Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Geogr.) Dissertation, Moscow State University, 2010.
Statistica for the Windows Operating System, Tulsa: Stat-Soft, Inc., 1995, vols. I–IV.
Strzepek, K.M. and McCluskey, A.L., Modeling the impact of climate change on global hydrology and water availability, in The World Bank, 2010, Discussion paper no. 8, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/09/29/000334955_20100929032434/Rendered/PDF/568010NWP0D1CC10Box353732B01PUBLIC1.pdf
Vliyanie uvelicheniya kolichestva uglekislogo gaza v atmosfere na klimat (Effect of Increased Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere on Climate), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1982.
Vorosmarty, C.J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., and Lammers, R.B., Global water resources: vulnerability from climatic change and population growth, Science, 2000, vol. 289, pp. 284–288.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
The article is published in the original. Under financial support of the RFBR (grant 13-05-00202)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dobrovolski, S.G. Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate. Water Resour 41, 728–737 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807814060049
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807814060049