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Study of the Influence of Climate Variability on the Operation of Wind Farms on the Territory of Russia

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Abstract

The work is devoted to studying the features of the wind-speed dynamics in the regions of Russia in which the existing and prospective wind-energy facilities are concentrated. For calculations, the latest generation reanalysis data set ERA5 for the period 1950–2021 was used. An analysis of wind-speed coherence on the cross-continental scales of Northern Eurasia has been carried out. It is shown that the characteristic size of the area of synchronous change in wind speed is hundreds of kilometers, while one can find locations with an incoherent variations of the wind speed in those territories of Russia where wind generation development is mainly concentrated. An empirical study of wind power plant (WPP) performance has been carried out on various time scales: from hourly to multidecade. It is shown that the typical variability of the average annual capacity factor (CF) of wind turbines is 10–20%. In this case, the extreme values of the CF in the entire considered period turn out to be two to three times higher. Averaging over the territory levels this value down to 10% in the case of typical values and up to 25–35% for extreme ones. A coefficient is proposed to estimate the daily unevenness of wind turbine power generation and the additional power reserve that will be required during the selected day in order to level the influence of wind turbine power fluctuations. It is shown that the wind turbine operation is characterized during the day by high variability, which, taking into account the specifics of power systems in a certain area, means an increase in the need for a reserve margin adjustment reserve. Averaging over the entire territory of each of the considered regions makes it possible to slightly increase the “guaranteed” generation of wind turbines and reduce its daily variability. At the same time, the choice of locations with minimal cross-correlations of the wind speed turns out to be almost as effective for reducing the daily nonuniformity as averaging over a large area. Tasks are identified, the solution of which will make it possible to simplify wind power integration into the power systems of Russian power system by minimizing risks for the reliability of power supply and optimizing the use of available opportunities to increase its flexibility.

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Funding

This work has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation by the project No. 18-79-10255 (E.V. Fedotova, Yu. A.Kozlova) in part of energy modeling and 20-19-00721 (V.V. Klimenko) in part of climate calculations.

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  1. National Research University Moscow Energy Institute, 111250, Moscow, Russia

    E. V. Fedotova, V. V. Klimenko & Yu. A. Kozlova

  2. Institute for Energy Research, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117186, Moscow, Russia

    E. V. Fedotova, V. V. Klimenko & Yu. A. Kozlova

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  1. E. V. Fedotova
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Correspondence to E. V. Fedotova.

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Fedotova, E.V., Klimenko, V.V. & Kozlova, Y.A. Study of the Influence of Climate Variability on the Operation of Wind Farms on the Territory of Russia. Therm. Eng. 70, 397–417 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601523060046

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