Abstract
The centenary of the adoption of the GOELRO Plan2 marked this year is a remarkable date for power engineering. Fifty years later, the comprehensive energy method used to develop the plan became one of the bases of the methodology for system studies into the development of the power industry. The preconditions for the emergence of this methodology are considered and its basic scientific, methodological, and applied results are characterized. The latter are represented in chronological order over two stages of the socio-economic development of the country. During the Soviet period, the theory and basic methods and models were created for system studies into the development of the fuel and energy sector of the country, its industries, and regional subsystems (1970–1980) and their application to the long-term panning of the development of the Soviet Union’s power industry began (1981–1991). These preconditions facilitated the formation of procedures and apparatus for managing the development of the power industry of the reformed Russia (1992–1998). The system study tools adapted to the market conditions were used from 1999 to 2008 to develop the documents for strategically planning the development of the country’s power industry. Theoretically, this activity was continued after the 2009 economic crisis; later, however, it lost its systemic character and did not apply advanced studies into the prospects of the developments of Russia’s economy. Finally, the courses of the development and potential applications of this research area are discussed in alternative, mobilizing or liberal, concepts of the organization of the “future information society” (2035–2050). In this review, publications on the management of the development of large-scale energy systems are considered. The aspects of their optimal functioning are the subject of another review3.
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Makarov, A.A. and Mitrova, T.A., The Centenary of the GOELRO Plan: Capabilities and Problems of the Planned Economy, Therm. Eng., 2020, vol. 11, p. 5–16. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040363620110089
Sistemnye issledovaniya v energetike: retrospektiva nauchnykh napravlenii SEI–ISEM (Systems Studies in the Power Industry: Retrospective Review of Research at the Siberian Power Engineering Institute–Melent’ev Institute of Energy Systems), Novosibirsk, Nauka, Siberian Branch, 2010. Treatises on the development of the power industry listed in the references of the book are included in this review but structured in a different way and supplemented by publications of the recent years and, most importantly, from other institutions.
Sistemnye issledovaniya v energetike: retrospektiva nauchnykh napravlenii SEI–ISEM (Systems Studies in the Power Industry: Retrospective Review of Research at Siberian Power Engineering Institute–Melent’ev Institute of Energy Systems), Novosibirsk, Nauka, Siberian Branch, 2010.
Simultaneously, system studies into the development of transportation were conducted promoting cross-fertilization of both research lines (see Livshits, V.N., Sistemnyi analiz ekonomicheskikh protsessov na transporte (Systems Analysis of Economic Processes in Transportation), M.: Transport, 1986.
The monitoring of the implementation of the ES-2010 and ES‑2020 showed that the development scenarios of and forecasts for the FES and its industries appeared to have been executed to 82 and 80%, respectively [40, Tables 1.2 and 1.3, pp. 19–21]. Unfortunately, the forecasts of the subsequent strategic documents were and are being implemented to a far lesser extent.
Super Complex for Active Navigation in Energy Research.
In these models, the development of a system is described as an interaction of autonomous agents (subsystems) with each other and the outside world with their conditions (restrictions) of and priorities in the decision making.
Aktualnyi opyt zarubezhnykh stran po razvitiyu gosudarstvennykh sistem strategicheskogo planirovaniya (Relevant Experience of Foreign Countries in Developing National Strategic Planning Systems), M.: NIU VShE, 2016.
Refer to: http://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/: Information Technologies in the Federal Revenue Service.
Rheingold, H., Smart Mobs: A New Social Revolution, M.: Fair-Press, 2006.
Although the successful development of artificial intelligence will make the use of mathematical models unnecessary.
The idea of the economy “digitization” concept developed in the Soviet Union is set forth in terms of the current information technologies: Glushkov, V.M., Makroekonomicheskie modeli i printsipy postroeniya OGAS (Macroeconomic Models and Principles of Construction of the National Automated System), M.: Statistika, 1975.
K. Kelly, “The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces that will Shape Our Future,” NY: Viking Press, 2016.
DAOstack—An Operating System for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations, Gibraltar, White Paper, 2017.
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Translated by O. Lotova
For the full text of the review of 180 publications on the subject, predominantly treatises, refer to www.eriras.ru
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Makarov, A.A. Half a Century of Systems Studies into Developing the Power Industry in the Soviet Union and Russia: What Next? (Review). Therm. Eng. 67, 863–871 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601520120034
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601520120034