Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Using Integral Daily Es Characteristics to Identify Short-Term Ionospheric Precursors of Strong Earthquakes

  • Published:
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract—

Day-to-day variations of deviations of integral daily characteristics of the sporadic E layer in different seasons in 1987, 1996, 2003–2004, and 2014 from the reference values are investigated. The analysis is conducted based on hourly measurements from Japanese ground-based vertical ionospheric sounding stations in order to identify possible short-term ionospheric precursors of crustal (surface) earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 6.5 under real observational conditions. Using the coincidence of the maxima in the variations of the considered Es characteristics at the same day on pairs of stations located hundreds of kilometers from each other, 12 possible ionospheric earthquake precursors (true alarms) and 22 false alarms, which are not followed by earthquakes of the specified range in different seasons of 1987, 1996, and 2003–2004, were found. The efficiency of identifying possible short-term ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes is determined by the chosen method based on Hanssen–Kuipers score (Rscore), which turned out to be 0.82 for the specified time periods. It is concluded that the proposed methodology for identifying short-term ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes can be used in real conditions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.

REFERENCES

  1. Aprodov, V.A., Zony zemletryasenii (Earthquake Zones), Moscow: Mysl’, 2000.

  2. Bychkov, V.V., Korsunova, L.P., Smirnov, S.E., and Hegai, V.V., Atmospheric anomalies and anomalies of electricity in the near-surface atmosphere before the Kamchatka earthquake of January 30, 2016, based on the data from the Paratunka observatory, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2017, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 491–499.

  3. Chavdarov, S.S., Chasovitin, Yu.K., Chernysheva, S.P., and Sheftel’, V.M., Sredneshirotnyi sporadicheskii sloi E ionosfery (Midlatitude Sporadic E-Layer of the Ionosphere), Moscow: Nauka, 1975.

  4. Chen, Y.-I., Liu, J.-Y., Tsai, Y.-B., and Chen, C.-S., Statistical tests for pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. J., 2004, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 385–396.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Dabas, R.S., Das, R.M., Sharma, K., and Pillai, K.G.M., Ionospheric precursors observed over low latitudes during some of the recent major earthquakes, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2007, vol. 69, pp. 1813–1824.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Dobrovolsky, I.P., Zubkov, S.I., and Miachkin, V.I., Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones, Pure App-l. Geophys., 1979, vol. 117, no. 5, pp. 1025–1044.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Hobara, Y. and Parrot, M., Ionospheric perturbation in association with seismic activity. A statistical study, in 27th General Assembly of the International Union of Radio Science. Commission E URSI GA 2002—Oral and Poster Sessions, Maastricht, the Netherlands, 2002, EGH P.10 (570). https://www.ursi.org/Proceedings/ ProcGA02/papers/p0570.pdf.

  8. Hobara, Y. and Parrot, M., Ionospheric perturbations linked to a very powerful seismic event, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2005, vol. 67, no. 7, pp. 677–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2005.02.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Korsunova, L.P. and Khegai, V.V., Seismo-ionospheric effects of the strong crustal earthquakes in the Pacific region, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2005, vol. 45, no. 5, pp. 665–670.

  10. Korsunova, L.P. and Khegai, V.V., Medium-term ionospheric precursors to strong earthquakes, Int. J. Geomagn. Aeron., 2006, vol. 6, no. 3, p. GI3005. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GI000122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Korsunova, L.P. and Khegai, V.V., Analysis of seismoionospheric disturbances at the Chain of Japanese stations for vertical sounding of the ionosphere, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2008, vol. 48, no.3, pp. 392–399.

  12. Korsunova, L.P. and Hegai, V.V., Effectiveness criteria for methods of identifying ionospheric earthquake precursors by parameters of a sporadic E-layer and regular F2-layer, J. Astron. Space Sci., 2015, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 137−140. https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2015.32.2.137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Korsunova, L.P. and Khegai, V.V., Possible short-term precursors of strong crustal earthquakes in Japan based on data from the ground stations of vertical ionospheric sounding, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2018, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 90–97.

  14. Korsunova, L.P. and Legen’ka, A.D., Detection of possible short-term ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes based on changes in diurnal Es characteristics, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2021, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 896–904. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793221050066

  15. Korsunova, L.P., Chistyakova, L.V., and Khegai, V.V., Changes in the ionosphere prior to weak earthquakes in the Irkutsk region, Geomagn. Aeron. (Engl. Transl.), 2016, vol. 56, no.4, pp. 493–502. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793216040083

  16. Liu, J.Y., Chen, Y.I., Chuo, Y.J., and Chen, C.S., A statistical investigation of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly, J. Geophys. Res., 2006, vol. 111, p. A05304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Loewe, C.A. and Prölss, G.W., Classification and mean behavior of magnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 1997, vol. 102, no. A7, pp. 14 209–142 013. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JA04020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Mikhailov, Yu.M., On the properties of earthquake precursors in the electrostatic field of the surface atmosphere, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2007, vol. 43, no.4, pp. 336–339.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Ondoh, T., Seismo-ionospheric phenomena, Adv. Space Res., 2000, vol. 26, no. 8, pp. 1267–1272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Ondoh, T., Anomalous sporadic-E layers observed before M7.2 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake: Terrestrial gas emanation model, Adv. Polar Upper Atmos. Res., 2003, no. 17, pp. 96–108.

  21. Perevalova, N.P., Sankov, V.A., Astafyeva, E.I., and Zhupityaeva, A.S., Threshold magnitude for ionospheric TEC response to earthquakes, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2014, vol. 108, pp. 77–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2013.12.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Perrone, L., Korsunova, L.P., and Mikhailov, A.V., Ionospheric precursors for crustal earthquakes in Italy, Ann. Geophys., 2010, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 941–950.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Pulinets, S.A. and Boyarchuk, K.A., Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes, Berlin: Springer, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Pulinets, S.A., Uzunov, D.P., Davidenko, D.V., Dudkin, S.A., and Tsadikovskii, E.I., Prognoz zemletryasenii vozmozhen?! (Is the Earthquake Prediction Possible?!), Moscow: Trovant, 2014.

  25. Saha, A., Guha, A., Kumar, B., De, B.K., Roy, R., Choudhury, A., Banik, B., Dhar, P., and Chakraborty, M., Precursory signature of several major earthquakes studied using 40 kHz low frequency signal, Adv. Space Res., 2014, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 617–627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2014.04.024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Sarkar, S., Gwal, A.K., and Parrot, M., Ionospheric variations observed by the DEMETER satellite in the mid-latitude region during strong earthquakes, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2007, vol. 69, no. 13, pp. 1524–1540.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Sharma, D.K., Israil, M., Chand, R., Rai, J., Subrahmanya, P., and Garg, S.C., Signature of seismic activities in the F2 region ionospheric electron temperature, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2006, vol. 68, pp. 691–696.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Silina, A.S., Liperovskaya, E.V., Liperovsky, V.A., and Meister, C.V., Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2001, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 113–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Xia, C., Yang, S., Xu, G., Zhao, B., and Yu, T., Ionospheric anomalies observed by GPS TEC prior to the Qinghai Tibet region earthquakes, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 2011, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 177–185. https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2010.08.13.01(TibXS)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center USA, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT, Japan), World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto (Japan), whose ionospheric and magnetic data were used in this study, as well as the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program for providing access to earthquake data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    L. P. Korsunova & V. V. Khegai

Authors
  1. L. P. Korsunova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. V. Khegai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to L. P. Korsunova or V. V. Khegai.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by O. Pismenov

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Korsunova, L.P., Khegai, V.V. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Using Integral Daily Es Characteristics to Identify Short-Term Ionospheric Precursors of Strong Earthquakes. Geomagn. Aeron. 63, 197–206 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222600588

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222600588

Search

Navigation