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Prediction of TEC and Range Error using Low-latitude GPS Data during January to April 2022 Solar Flare Events

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Abstract

The effects of solar, geomagnetic, and ionospheric anomalies on satellite communication are inextricable. Range Error (RE) is the most common fault that is faced by the navigational receivers during solar flares. Since RE always depends on the Total Electron Content (TEC) available across the satellite ray path, a prediction model capable of predicting the TEC in advance will be an excellent deterrent during adverse space weather conditions. In this research, Cokriging based Surrogate Model (COKSM) is constructed for predicting the TEC variations that occurred during the month of January 2022 to April 2022 over Hyderabad region. The input data used in the construction of the model includes F10.7 radio flux, Sunspot number (SSN), Geomagnetic index Kp and Ap along with Vertical TEC (VTEC) data collected from Hyderabad station located in 17.31° N latitude and 78.55° E longitude. The data is collected in hourly averaged resolution for a period of 120 days covering January to April 2022. The variations in Ionospheric TEC due to solar flares and geomagnetic anomalies that occurred during the selected observation dates are principally analyzed in order to evaluate the prediction capability of the COKSM program during adverse conditions. The performance of the model is evaluated using metrics like Root Mean Square Percentage error (RMSPE), Correlation Coefficient (ρ), CHI-Squared goodness of fit test and R-squared. The results that are plotted as a linear regression scatter plot clearly shows that with very small residuals the proposed prediction model is performing well for TEC prediction. The overall RE predicted by the model is within the scale of 1–12 meters. The error parameters calculated between true TEC and predicted TEC is found out to be in the scale of 0.88 to 5.06% for RMSPE, 0.9308 to 0.9981 for correlation coefficient, 4.97 to 107.94 (TECU) for chi squared and 0.78 to 0.98 (TECU) for R squared.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of ECE, Saranathan College of Engineering, 620012, Trichy, India

    S. Kiruthiga

  2. Department of ECE, PSNA College of Engineering and Technology, 624622, Dindigul, India

    S. Mythili

  3. Department of Aerospace Engineering, ACS College of Engineering, 560001, Bangalore, India

    M. Vijay & R. Mukesh

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  1. S. Kiruthiga
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  2. S. Mythili
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  3. M. Vijay
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  4. R. Mukesh
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Correspondence to S. Kiruthiga.

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Kiruthiga, S., Mythili, S., Vijay, M. et al. Prediction of TEC and Range Error using Low-latitude GPS Data during January to April 2022 Solar Flare Events. Geomagn. Aeron. 63, 17–29 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222600515

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