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Asynchronous Links of Atmospheric and Oceanic Climate with Solar Activity

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Abstract

Asynchronous links of long-term changes in the air temperature over continents and the sea surface temperature with changes in solar activity is analyzed. Changes in solar activity is shown to determine almost 50% of the total variability of the sea surface temperature in the southern latitudes of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans with a delay of 28–37 years. Long-term fluctuations in the sea surface temperature slowly extend from the Southern Ocean to the Northern Hemisphere through the system of Broker’s great ocean conveyor, passing all latitudes of the Earth with an increasing delay. Climate fluctuations reach the northernmost latitudes after 40–47 years. The delay of transfer creates prognostic prerequisites. In the Southern Ocean, the observed temperature maximum of the 1980s–1990s is followed currently by a decrease in temperature. With a delay of 28–37 years, one can expect a maximum of increase in the sea surface temperature in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (in the coming years); then, in the 2030s, the warming can be replaced by the next phase of temporary cooling. The factors that were disregarded in this study can adjust the emergent prognostic prerequisites.

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Funding

This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 20-5 500 014.

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  1. All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information—World Data Center (RIHMI-WDC), Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, Russia

    B. G. Sherstyukov

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  1. B. G. Sherstyukov
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Correspondence to B. G. Sherstyukov.

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This is a Discussion Paper with Both Negative and Positive Reviews

Translated by V. Arutyunyan

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Sherstyukov, B.G. Asynchronous Links of Atmospheric and Oceanic Climate with Solar Activity. Geomagn. Aeron. 62, 623–631 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222050127

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