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Medium-Term Forecast of Solar Activity From Daily Data

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Abstract

Empirical ionospheric models reflect the dependence of key ionospheric characteristics on 12-month smoothed solar activity indices. These indices are determined with a delay of 6 months relative to the current time so the model implementation in real time is made with a forecast of solar activity, whose errors affect the accuracy of the ionospheric prediction. The 81-day smoothed proxy indices of solar activity can be used for driving the ionospheric model in real time including daily indices for the previous 40 days, an observation or forecast for the current day, and a forecast for the subsequent 40 days. In this paper, a method for predicting solar activity for 45 days (MSA45) is proposed, which is equally suitable for use with F10.7 solar radio emission flux indices and the SSN2 sunspot number. The model is based on the similarity of data in the current phase of the solar cycle with indices of solar activity in a relevant phase of the previous solar cycle. The model input parameters are the daily indices of solar activity F10.7 or SSN2 for the previous 45 days (d–45, …, d–1), the solar cycle phase Φ(d) for the current day, and the daily indices of solar activity for the subsequent 45 days (d1, …, d45) in the corresponding phase Φ of the previous solar cycle. The forecast of the sunspot number SSN2 for 45 days is made for the first time with an accuracy from 5.1 units for low solar activity to 23.1 units for high solar activity. A comparison of the forecast of F10.7 index of the MSA45 model with USAF-45DF forecast of this parameter and observational data show an improvement in the forecast accuracy from 15% at the solar activity maximum to 50% at the minimum solar activity.

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5. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors express their deep gratitude to the editor of the journal and respected reviewers of the article for their time and attention, as well as for valuable comments and suggestions. We appreciate the role of the editor and reviewers in the process of publishing our works, who are their first readers and qualified critics.

Funding

This work was supported by a joint project of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No. 19-52-25001_Kipr_a, and the National Research Foundation of Cyprus RPF Bilateral/Russia(RFBR)1118/0004 (RENAM).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, 108840, Moscow, Troitsk, Russia

    T. L. Gulyaeva & R. A. Gulyaev

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  1. T. L. Gulyaeva
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  2. R. A. Gulyaev
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Correspondence to T. L. Gulyaeva or R. A. Gulyaev.

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Gulyaeva, T.L., Gulyaev, R.A. Medium-Term Forecast of Solar Activity From Daily Data. Geomagn. Aeron. 62, 539–545 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222040090

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793222040090

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