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Some Features of the Present-day Transition Period in Solar Activity

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Abstract

Various geophysical indices and their prognostic value were analyzed in (Obridko et al., 2013; Kirov et al., 2013, 2015, 2017; Georgieva et al., 2015, 2018). Two indices have been selected for the analysis (total annual Dst values, and duration of a storm). It is important to note that, unlike the other indices of solar and geophysical activity, the summary Dst index does not show violation of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The analysis of annual mean Dst values reveals a clearly pronounced decrease in activity, at least since the 1980-ies. This allows us to suggest that we are at the descending branch of a secular cycle or on the threshold of a Grand Minimum. The decrease in solar activity is corroborated by the analysis of Forbush effects, solar wind speed, and intensity of the near-Earth magnetic field.

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Notes

  1. Hereinafter, in quoting early works, we give the original sunspot numbers in the system generally accepted at that time. This system corresponds to Version 1 (http://sidc.oma.be/silso/).

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Funding

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research (grant numbers 19-02-00191, 20-02-00150) and the Program of Large Projects of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (the project no. 075-15-2020-780).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IZMIRAN, Troistk, Moscow, Russia

    V. N. Obridko, A. A. Abunin, B. D. Shelting & I. M. Livshits

  2. Climate, Atmosphere, and Water Research Institute, BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria

    K. Georgieva

  3. Space Research and Technology Institute, BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria

    B. Kirov

Authors
  1. V. N. Obridko
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  2. A. A. Abunin
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  3. K. Georgieva
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  4. B. Kirov
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  6. I. M. Livshits
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Correspondence to V. N. Obridko.

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Obridko, V.N., Abunin, A.A., Georgieva, K. et al. Some Features of the Present-day Transition Period in Solar Activity. Geomagn. Aeron. 60, 1007–1016 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793220080186

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