Abstract
This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd–24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008–2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2−μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd–24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.
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Original Russian Text © M.S. Kalinin, G.A. Bazilevskaya, M.B. Krainev, A.K. Svirzhevskaya, N.S. Svirzhevsky, S.A. Starodubtsev, 2017, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2017, Vol. 57, No. 5, pp. 592–601.
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Kalinin, M.S., Bazilevskaya, G.A., Krainev, M.B. et al. Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22–24: Analysis and physical interpretation. Geomagn. Aeron. 57, 549–558 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793217050103
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793217050103