Abstract
A method for the short-term prediction of strong earthquakes is considered. The high probability of change in the properties of some statistical functionals of physical values before an earthquake is theoretically founded. The results are tested on the example of calculations based on data on the critical frequency of the ionosphere. An algorithm is proposed for estimating the probability of a strong tectonic event for an upcoming time interval of about a day after the end of a cycle of measuring a set of physical fields potentially containing information about earthquake precursors. The opportunity to apply the results to catastrophic events of an arbitrary physical nature is discussed.
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Original Russian Text © L.P. Kogan, 2015, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2015, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 525–539.
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Kogan, L.P. Change in statistical functionals of critical frequency prior to strong earthquakes. Geomagn. Aeron. 55, 507–520 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793215040064
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793215040064