Abstract
Modern views on the mechanisms of population dynamics in Palearctic birds wintering in tropical Africa are discussed with regard to the distribution of migrants on the African continent and the influence of external factors on conditions of bird wintering. The data on long-term bird trapping at ten ornithological stations in Europe are analyzed. Among 142 long-term trends in the population dynamics of 18 bird species, 34% are negative, 11% are positive, and the remaining trends lack statistical significance. The proportion of negative trends in each species negatively correlates with the number of birds: the more abundant the species, the lower the probability of its long-term population decline. Population dynamics may largely be determined by environmental conditions in wintering regions. Population studies on ten Palearctic species showed that drastic population declines and even local extinction of birds in recent decades resulted from the dramatic decrease in their survival on African wintering grounds because of insufficient precipitation and, in particular, severe droughts in the Sahel.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
T. Alerstam, Bird Migration (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990).
J. S. Ash, “Observations on a Decreasing Population of Red-Backed Shrikes,” Brit. Birds 63, 225–239 (1970).
S. R. Baillie and W. J. Peach, “Population Limitation in Palaearctic-African Migrant Passerines,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 120–132 (1992).
F. Bairlein, “Recent Prospects on Trans-Saharan Migration of Songbirds,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 41–46 (1995).
F. Bairlein and W. Winkel, “Birds and Climate Change,” in Climate of the 21st Century: Changes and Risk (Hamburg, 2001), pp. 278–282.
F. Bairlein et al., European-African Songbird Migration Network: Manual of Field Methods (Wilhelmshaven, 1995).
J. Baumanis, “Long-Term Dynamics of Some Selected Species of Land Birds during Autumn Migration in Pape, Latvia,” in Baltic Birds 5. Proceedings of V Conference on the Study and Conservation of Migratory Birds of the Baltic Basin (Riga, 1990), vol. 1, pp. 28–30.
P. Berthold, “Über Rückgangserscheinungen und deren mögliche Ursachen bei Singvögeln,” Vogelwelt. 93, 16–226 (1972).
P. Berthold, “Über starken Rückgang der Domgrasmücke Sylvia communis und anderer Singvogelarten im westlichen Europa,” J. Ornithol. 114(3), 348–360 (1973).
P. Berthold, Vogelzug. Eine kurze, aktuelle Gesamtubersicht (Wiss. Buchgesellschaft, Darmstdt, 1990).
P. Berthold, G. Fliege, U. Querner, and H. Winkler, “Die Bestandsentwicklung von Kleinvögeln in Mitteleuropa: Analyse von Fangzahlen,” J. Omithol. 127(4), 397–437 (1986).
P. Berthold, W. Fielder, R. Schlenker, and U. Querner, “25-Year Study of the Population Development of Central European Songbirds: A General Decline, Most Evident in Long-Distance Migrants,” Naturwissenschaft 85, 350–353 (1998).
P. Berthold, W. Fielder, R. Schlenker, and U. Querner, “Bestandsveränderungen mitteleuropäischer Kleinvögel: Abschlubericht zum MRI-Programm,” Vogelwarte 40, 1–10 (1999).
P. Busse, “Population Trends of Some Migrants at the Southern Baltic Coast: Autumn Catching Results 1961–1990,” Ring 16(1–2), 115 (1994).
P. Busse and T. Cofta, “Population Trends of Migrants at the Polish Baltic Coast and Some New Problems in the Interpretation of Migration Counts,” Vår Fågelvärld, Suppl. 11, 27–31 (1986).
P. Busse, J. Baumanis, A. Leivits, H. Pakkala, et al., “Population Number Dynamics 1961–1990 of Sylvia Species Caught during Autumn Migration at Some North and Central European Bird Stations,” Ring 17, 12–30 (1995).
A. J. Cave, “Purple Heron Survival and Drought in Tropical West Africa,” Ardea 71(2), 217–224 (1983).
N. S. Chemetsov, “Ecology and Behavior of Passerine Birds in Migration Stopover Areas: Formulating the Problem,” Omitologiya, No. 30, 136–146 (2003).
P. A. Cotton, “Avian Migration Phenology and Global Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 100(21), 12219–12222 (2003).
E. Cowley, “Sand Martin Population Trends in Britain, 1965–1978,” Bird Study 26(2), 113–116 (1979).
H. Q. P. Crick, “The Ecology and Conservation of Palaearctic-African Migrants,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 1–2 (1992).
K. Curry-Lindahl, Bird Migration in Africa (Academic Press, 1981), Vols. 1 and 2.
A. Dai, K. E. Trenberth, and T. Karl, “Global Variations in Droughts and Wet Spells: 1990–1995,” Geophys. Rev. Lett. 25, 3367–3370 (1998).
J. J. Den Held, “Population Changes of the Purple Heron in Relation to Drought in the Wintering Area,” Ardea 69(2), 185–191 (1981).
V. R. Dolnik, Migration State of Birds (Nauka, Moscow, 1975) [in Russian].
V. R. Dolnik and V. A. Payevsky, “Dynamics of Baltic Bird Populations between 1960 and 1976,” Ekologiya 4, 59–69 (1979).
V. R. Dolnik and V. A. Payevsky, “Dynamics of Baltic Bird Populations in 1960–1976,” Sov. J. Ecol., No. 10, 316–325 (1980).
R. Foppen, C. J. T. T. Braak, J. Verbook, and R. Reijnen, “Dutch Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus and West-African Rainfall: Empirical Data and Simulation Modeling Show Low Population Resilience in Fragmented Marshlands,” Ardea 87(1), 113–127 (1999).
M. C. Forchhammer, E. Post, and N. C. Stenseth, “North Atlantic Oscillation Timing of Long-and Short-Distance Migration,” J. Anim. Ecol. 71(3), 1002–1014 (2002).
T. Fransson, S. Jakobsson, S., and C. Kullberg, “Non-Random Distribution of Ring Recoveries from Trans-Saharan Migrants Indicates Species-Specific Stopover Areas,” J. Avian Biol. 36(1), 6–11 (2005).
W. Gatter, “30 Years of Migration Monitoring at the Randecker Maar, SW Germany,” Ring 21, 1–11 (1999).
R. E. Green, “Diagnosing the Causes of Bird Population Declines Using Comparative Methods: The Value of Data from Ringing,” Ring. Migr. 19(Suppl.), 7–56 (1999).
R. E. Green, G. A. Tyler, T. E. Stowe, and A. V. Newton, “A Simulation Model of the Effect of Mowing of Agricultural Grassland on the Breeding Success of the Corn-crake Crex crex,” J. Zool. London 243, 81–115 (1997).
L. von Haartman, “Population Dynamics,” Avian Biol. 1, 391–459 (1971).
M. Herremans, “Seasonal Dynamics in Sub-Kalahari Bird Communities with Emphasis on Migrants,” in Proceedings of VIII Pan-African Ornithological Congress, Ann. Mus. Roy. Afr. Centr. 268, 555–564 (1993).
M. Herremans, “Habitat Segregation of Male and Female Red-Backed Shrikes Lanius collurio and Lesser Grey Shrikes Lanius minor in the Kalahari Basin, Botswana,” J. Avian Biol. 28, 240–248 (1997).
C. Hjort and C. G. Lindholm, “Annual Bird Ringing Totals and Population Fluctuations,” Oikos 30(2), 387–392 (1978).
C. Hjort and J. Pettersson, “Bird Ringing Figures and the Monitoring of the Bird Populations,” Spec. Rep. Ottenby Bird Observ. 7, 1–23 (1986).
C. Hjort, C. G. Lindholm, and J. Pettersson, Ringmärkningssiffror vid Ottenby fågelstation 1946–1980. Rapport från fågelstation No. 2. (Degerhamn, 1981).
A. I. Houston, “Models of Optimal Avian Migration: State, Time, and Predation,” J. Avian Biol. 9(4), 395–404 (1998).
J. W. Hurrell, “Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation,” Science 269, 676–679 (1995).
J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, and M. Visbeck, “The North Atlantic Oscillation,” Science 291, 603–605 (2001).
O. Jarvinen, “Key-Factor Analyses of Two Finnish Hole-Nesting Passerines: Comparisons between Species and Regions,” Ann. Zool. Fenn. 24, 275–280 (1987).
O. Jarvinen and R. A. Vaisanen, “Long-Term Population Changes of the Most Abundant South Finnish Birds during the Past 50 Years,” J. Ornithol. 119(4), 441–449 (1978).
G. Jurry, “Incidence de plus de 25 années de desordre climatique en Afrique tropicale occidentale sur les habitats et les oiseaux migrateurs du palearctique occidental,” Aves 34, 12–15 (1997).
S. Kanyamibwa, A. Schierer, R. Pradel, and J. D. Lebreton, “Changes in Adult Annual Survival Rates in a Western European Population of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia,” Ibis 132(1), 27–35 (1990).
H. N. Kluiver, “Regulation of a Bird Population,” Ostrich, Suppl. 6, 389–396 (1966).
D. Lack, The Natural Regulation of Animal Numbers (Clarendon, Oxford, 1954).
P. C. Lack, “Ecological Correlates of Migrants and Residents in a Tropical African Savanna,” Ardea 74(2), 111–119 (1986).
J. D. Lebreton, K. P. Burnham, J. Clobert, and D. R. Anderson, “Modeling Survival and Testing Biological Hypotheses Using Marked Animals: A Unified Approach with Case Studies,” Ecol. Monogr. 62, 67–118 (1992).
B. Leisler, “Habitat Selection and Coexistence of Migrants and Afrotropical Residents,” Ibis 134 (Suppl. 1), 77–82 (1992).
B. Leisler, “Habitat Use and Coexistence of Palaearctic Migrants and Afrotropical Residents,” in Proceedings of VIII Pan-African Omithological Congress, Ann. Mus. Roy. Afr. Centr. 268, 565–570 (1993).
G. L. Lövei, “Passerine Migration between the Palaearctic and Africa,” Curr. Ornithol. 6, 143–174 (1989).
J. H. Marchant, “Recent Trends in Breeding Populations of Some Common Trans-Saharan Migrant Birds in Northern Europe,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 113–119 (1992).
M. A. Menzbir, Bird Migrations in Terms of Zoogeography (Biomedgiz, Moscow, 1934) [in Russian].
A. P. Moller, “Population Dynamics of a Declining Swallow Hirundo rustica Population,” Okeanologiya 58(3), 1051–1063 (1989).
R. E. Moreau, The Palaearctic-African Bird Migration Systems (Academic Press, London, 1972).
G. Morel, “The Sahel Zone As Environment for Palaearctic Migrants,” Ibis 115(3), 413–417 (1973).
G. J. Morel and M.-Y. Morel, “Habitat Use by Palaearctic Migrant Passerine Birds in West Africa,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 83–88 (1992).
D. Moritz, “Long-Term Monitoring of Palaearctic-African Migrants at Helgoland/German Bight, North Sea,” in Proceedings of VIII Pan-African Ornithological Congress, Ann. Mus. Roy. Afr. Centr. 268, 579–586 (1993).
L. Nef, P. Dutilleul, and B. Nef, “Estimation des variations quantitatives de populations Dde passereaux a partir des bilans de 24 annees de baguage au Limbourg Belge,” Gerfaut 78(2), 173–207 (1988).
I. Newton, “Relationship Between Breeding and Wintering Ranges in Palaearctic-African Migrants,” Ibis 137(2), 241–249 (1995).
I. Newton, “Population Limitation in Migrants,” Ibis 146(2), 197–226 (2004).
I. Newton, “Stopover Ecology, Migration-Related Mortality and Population Limitation in Birds,” in Migration in the Life-History of Birds. Abstracts of Conference Presentations (Wilhelmshaven, 2005), p. 8.
V. Olsson, “The Red-Backed Shrike Lanius collurio in Southeastern Sweden: Breeding Biology,” Ornis Svecica 5, 101–110 (1995).
S. Österlöf and B. O. Stolt, “Population Trends Indicated by Birds Ringed in Sweden,” Ornis Scand. 13(2), 135–140 (1982).
V. A. Payevsky, “Population Dynamics of Birds. Main Problems,” Usp. Sovrem. Biol. 96(2) 5), 296–307 (1983).
V. A. Payevsky, Bird Demography (Nauka, Leningrad, 1985) [in Russian].
V. A. Payevsky, “Population Dynamics of Birds According to Data of Trapping on the Courland Spit, the Baltic Sea, over 27 Years,” Zool. Zh. 69(2), 80–93 (1990a).
V. A. Payevsky, “Population Dynamics of Birds During 1960–1986 According to Trapping Data on the Courish Spit of the Baltic Sea,” in Baltic Birds 5. Proceedings of V Conference on the Study and Conservation of Migratory Birds of the Baltic Basin (Riga, 1990b), vol. 2, pp. 69–73.
V. A. Payevsky, “Adaptive Essence of Seasonal Migrations: Are Annual Migrations Dangerous for Birds?,” Zool. Zh. 78(3), 303–310 (1999).
V. A. Payevsky, “Demographic Studies of Migrating Bird Populations: The Aims and the Possibilities,” Ring 22, 57–65 (2000).
V. A. Payevsky, “Consideration of Population Decline in Some Migratory Species from Eastern Baltic Wintering in Africa,” in Migration in the Life-History of Birds. Abstracts of Conference Presentations (Wilhelmshaven, 2005), p. 45.
V. A. Payevsky, V. G. Vysotsky, and N. P. Zelenova, “Extinction of a Barred Warbler Sylvia nisoria Population in Eastern Baltic: Long-Term Monitoring, Demography, and Biometry,” Avian Ecol. Behav. 11, 89–105 (2003).
W. J. Peach, S. R. Baillie, and L. Underhill, “Survival of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in Relation to West African Rainfall,” Ibis 133(3), 300–305 (1991).
W. J. Peach, H. Q. P. Crick, and J. H. Marchant, “The Demography of the Decline in the British Willow Warbler Population,” J. Appl. Stat. 22, 905–922 (1995).
W. J. Peach, S. R. Baillie, and D. E. Balmer, “Long-Term Changes in the Abundance of Passerines in Britain and Ireland as Measured by Constant Effort Mist-Netting,” Bird Study 45(3), 257–275 (1998).
D. J. Pearson and P. C. Lack, “Migration Patterns and Habitat Use by Passerine and Near-Passerine Migrant Birds in Eastern Africa,” Ibis 134(Suppl. 1), 89–98 (1992).
J. Pettersson, Fågelräkning vid Ottenby 1996 (Naturvårdsverket, Degerhamn, 1997).
J. Pettersson and A. Hedenström, “Long Term Fluctuations in Ringing Figures of Willow Warblers Phylloscopus trochilus at Ottenby, Sweden,” Vår Fågelvärld, Suppl. 11, 171–174 (1986).
G. R. Potts and N. J. Aebischer, “Population Dynamics of the Grey Partridge Perdix perdix 1793–1993: Monitoring, Modeling, and Management,” Ibis 137, S29–S37 (1995).
R. A. Robinson, H. Q. P. Crick, and W. J. Peach, “Population Trends of Swallows Hirundo rustica Breeding in Britain,” Bird Study 50(1), 1–7 (2003).
V. Salewski, F. Bairlein, and B. Leisler, “Different Wintering Strategies of Two Palearctic Migrants in West Africa: A Consequence of Foraging Strategies?,” Ibis 144(1), 85–93 (2002).
H. Shirihai, G. Gargallo, and A. J. Helbig, A.J., Sylvia Warblers. Identification, Taxonomy, and Phylogeny of the Genus Sylvia, Ed. by G. Kirwan and L. Svensson (Christopher Helm, A & C Black, London, 2001).
T. S. Sillett and R. T. Holmes, “Variation in Survivorship of a Migratory Songbird Throughout Its Annual Cycle,” J. Anim. Ecol. 71, 296–308 (2002).
T. Slagsvold, “Critical Period for Regulation of Great Tit (Parus major) and Blue Tit (P. caeruleus) Populations,” Norv. J. Zool. 23(1), 67–88 (1975).
L. V. Sokolov, “Population Dynamics,” Zool. Zh. 78(3), 311–324 (1999a).
L. V. Sokolov, “Population Dynamics in 20 Sedentary and Migratory Passerine Species of the Courish Spit on the Baltic Sea,” Avian Ecol. Behav. 3, 23–50 (1999b).
L. V. Sokolov and V. V. Kosarev, “Relationship between Timing of Arrival of Passerines to the Courish Spit and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and Precipitation in Africa,” Proc. Zool. Inst. Russ. Acad. Sci. 299, 141–154 (2003).
L. V. Sokolov and M. Y. Markovets, “The Impact of Climate Change on the Numbers of Passerines in Europe,” in International Conference on Bird and Environment. Abstract Volume (Gurukula Kangri Univ., Haridwar, India, 2004), p. 133.
L. V. Sokolov and V. A. Payevsky, “Spring Temperatures Effects on Year-to-Year Variations in Breeding Phenology of Passerines on the Courish Spit,” Avian Ecol. Behav. 1, 22–36 (1998).
L. V. Sokolov, V. A. Paevskii, M. Yu. Markovets, and Yu. G. Morozov, “Comparative Analysis of the Levels of Phylopatry, Dispersal, and Abundance in Two Species of Warblers, Phylloscopus trochilus and Phylloscopus sibilatrix (Aves, Sulviidae), on the Courish Spit, the Baltic,” Zool. Zh. 75(4), 565–578 (1996).
L. V. Sokolov, V. D. Yefremov, M. Y. Markovets, A. P. Shapoval, and M. E. Shumakov, “Monitoring of Numbers in Passage Populations of Passerines over 42 Years (1958–1999) on the Courish Spit of the Baltic Sea,” Avian Ecol. Behav. 4, pp. 31–53 (2000).
L. V. Sokolov, A. Baumanis, A. Leivits, A. M. Poluda, V. D. Yefremov, et al., “Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data on Numbers of Passerines in Nine European Countries in the Second Half of the 20th Century,” Avian Ecol. Behav. 27, 41–74 (2001).
M. J. Stenning, P. H. Harvey, and B. Campbell, “Searching for Density-Dependent Regulation in a Population of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas,” J. Anim. Ecol. 57, 307–317 (1988).
G. Svärdson and S. Durango, “Spring Weather and Population Fluctuations,” in Proceedings of X International Ornithological Congress, 1950, pp. 497–501.
S. E. Svensson, “Efficiency of Two Methods for Monitoring Bird Population Levels: Breeding Bird Censuses Contra Counts of Migrating Birds,” Oikos 30(2), 373–386 (1978).
T. Szép, “Relationship between West African Rainfall and the Survival of Central European Sand Martins Riparia riparia,” Ibis 137(2), 162–168 (1995).
M. Virolainen, “Breeding Biology of the Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca in Relation to Population Density,” Ann. Zool. Fenn. 21, 187–197 (1984).
T. C. R. White, “Opposing Paradigms: Regulation or Limitation of Populations?,” Oikos 93(1), 148–152 (2001).
D. Winstanley, R. Spencer, and K. Williamson, “Where Have All the Whitethroats Gone?,” Bird Study 21(1), 1–14 (1974).
M. Wozniak, “Population Number Dynamics of Some Turdidae Species, Caught in Autumn Migration in Period 1961–1996 at Different Northern and Central European Ornithological Stations,” Ring 19, 105–127 (1997).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Original Russian Text © VA. Payevsky, 2006, published in Zoologicheskii Zhurnal, 2006, Vol. 85, no. 3, pp. 368–381.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Payevsky, V.A. Mechanisms of population dynamics in trans-Saharan migrant birds: A review. Entmol. Rev. 86 (Suppl 1), S82–S94 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S001387380610006X
Received:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S001387380610006X