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A Prototype of a Background Solar Wind Forecasting Service Based on MHD Modeling and WSA Boundary Conditions

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Abstract

A prototype service for MHD modeling of the calm solar wind and forecasting the speed and density of solar wind particles in interplanetary space, similar to the NOAA and ESA services, has been created. The service consists of an MHD simulator, a module for processing simulation results, and a web interface. The simulator is based on the implementation of the TVDLF method in the PLUTO package. The boundary conditions of the model (density, radial velocity, magnetic field, temperature) at a distance of 0.1 AU from the origin are obtained regularly from the corresponding NOAA service, in which they are calculated according to the WSA model based on the magnetograms of the GONG network. Two modes of boundary conditions are available: constant and daily. The simulations were carried out on a uniform grid in the range of 0.1–1.7 AU by distance (512 elements), –60°...+60° by latitude (60 elements), 0°–360° by longitude (180 elements). The calculated particle velocity and density maps are compared with the NOAA SWPC and NASA CCMC calculations under the same boundary conditions. A retrospective comparison of the resulting forecasts with data from direct measurements (OMNI) was carried out.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are grateful to Dusan Odstrcil (George Mason University) for valuable advice. The authors are also grateful to Alexey Pecherkin and Natalya Strannikova (LETI) for their active participation at an early stage of the work. The authors are grateful to the CCMC team for the opportunity to conduct simulations (the simulation performed in the course of this work is available on the CCMC website under the title Aleksandr_Kodukov_101722_SH_1).

Funding

Research of Dmitry Pavlov was performed at the Saint-Petersburg Leonhard Euler International Mathematical Institute and supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (agreement no. 075-15-2022-287).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. St. Petersburg State Electrotechnical University “LETI”, 197022, St. Petersburg, Russia

    S. Arutyunyan, A. Kodukov, M. Subbotin & D. Pavlov

  2. St. Petersburg State University, 199034, St. Petersburg, Russia

    D. Pavlov

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  1. S. Arutyunyan
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  2. A. Kodukov
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  3. M. Subbotin
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  4. D. Pavlov
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Correspondence to D. Pavlov.

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Arutyunyan, S., Kodukov, A., Subbotin, M. et al. A Prototype of a Background Solar Wind Forecasting Service Based on MHD Modeling and WSA Boundary Conditions. Cosmic Res 61, 457–463 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952523700508

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952523700508

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