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Forecasting Extreme Space-Weather Events on the Basis of Cosmic-Ray Fluctuations

Abstract

In extreme events of space weather, very large fluxes of “storm” particles are formed preceding the arrival of a shock wave into the Earth’s orbit. They are the ones that pose the greatest danger to life-support systems in the upper atmosphere, in space, and on the Earth. The results have been checked of the prediction of “storm” particles accelerated by shock waves from variations in high-energy cosmic rays by measurements on the ACE spacecraft (United States). The forecast reliability is assessed at P ≥ 80%.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

In conclusion, the author expresses his deep gratitude to Vyacheslav Kozlov for the development, creation and software support of the Cyber-FORSHOCK automated expert system for forecasting and diagnosing geoeffective events in space weather in real time (http://www.forshock.ru/ pred.html), based on 5-min data from the European Cosmic Ray Database.

The author also expresses his sincere gratitude and gratitude to Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Sodankila Geophysical Observatory, Finland (http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/), for the kindly provided 5-min measurement data of the Oulu neutron monitoring station over a long period of time.

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Kozlov, V.I. Forecasting Extreme Space-Weather Events on the Basis of Cosmic-Ray Fluctuations. Cosmic Res 60, 79–88 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952522010063

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