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Study of the Characteristics of the Possible Region of the Apophis Asteroid Impact with Earth in 2036

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Abstract—

In this study the possible region of the impact of the dangerous Apophis asteroid with Earth in 2036 according to the asteroid orbit of 2005 is determined and studied. Algorithms are developed to searching the entire probable set of Apophis asteroid trajectories falling into Earth using Monte Carlo and gradient descent methods. For this set, the search was realized for several probable families of collisions with Earth in 2036 asteroid trajectories corresponding to subsets of the perigee distance of the Apophis orbit from the minimum possible distance, ~2069 km, to the maximum corresponding to touching Earth’s surface, ~6376 km. A mapping of the entire set of trajectories falling onto Earth’s surface was obtained, as well as a collisional band was also constructed on the world map. The features of this collisional path and the properties of collision trajectories of Apophis were studied. A comparison of the results of this study with others is given.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We are grateful to V.V. Chazov, Dr. Sci. (Phys.–Math.), V.A. Stepanyants, Cand. Sci. (Phys.–Math.), and Yu.P. Kuleshov, an employee of AO Cometa, for discussing the paper and providing advice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 125047, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Ivashkin & P. Guo

  2. Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Ivashkin & C. A. Stikhno

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  1. V. V. Ivashkin
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  2. P. Guo
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  3. C. A. Stikhno
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Correspondence to V. V. Ivashkin.

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Translated by N. Topchiev

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Ivashkin, V.V., Guo, P. & Stikhno, C.A. Study of the Characteristics of the Possible Region of the Apophis Asteroid Impact with Earth in 2036. Cosmic Res 58, 21–32 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952520010049

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952520010049

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