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A mechanism of formation of polar cyclones and possibility of their prediction using satellite observations

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Abstract

Using numerical simulation, a mechanism of formation of polar cyclones in the region of location of the arctic front in the winter troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere is studied. The simulation was performed with the help of the complete system of gas dynamics equations taking into account the transport of infrared radiation, phase transitions of water vapor into micro-drops of water and ice particles, and with allowance made for sedimentation of these drops and ice particles in the gravity field. In the initial and boundary conditions of the model, observational data on the structure of dominating air flows in the region of the arctic front over Norwegian Sea in January are used. Formation of large-scale cyclonic vortex flows in 15–20 hours at the presence of a bend of the central line of the shear flow in the arctic front 500–600 km long with northward or southward deviations by 100 km and more is obtained numerically. On the basis of the simulation results, a method of short-term forecast of formation and motion of polar cyclones is suggested.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Polar Geophysical Institute, Kola Scientific Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Fersmana 14, Apatity, Murmansk oblast, 184200, Russia

    I. V. Mingalev, K. G. Orlov & V. S. Mingalev

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  1. I. V. Mingalev
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  2. K. G. Orlov
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  3. V. S. Mingalev
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Correspondence to I. V. Mingalev.

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Original Russian Text © I.V. Mingalev, K.G. Orlov, V.S. Mingalev, 2012, published in Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, 2012, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 166–175.

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Mingalev, I.V., Orlov, K.G. & Mingalev, V.S. A mechanism of formation of polar cyclones and possibility of their prediction using satellite observations. Cosmic Res 50, 160–169 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952512010066

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952512010066

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