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Power law distribution in statistics of failures in operation of spacecraft onboard equipment

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Abstract

The possibility of using the statistics of recurrence time for extreme events is studied in this paper having in mind the problems of control and prediction of failures in spacecraft operation. The information about failures onboard satellites of various types presented by the US National Geophysical Data Center was analyzed. It was found that the probability density of recurrence intervals followed a power law of the Pareto type with an index equal to 2.3. The obtained result is consistent both with the theory of normal catastrophes and with the principle of self-organization of criticality for metastable active heterogeneous environment. A practical consequence of the obtained result consists in the fact that predictions of these extreme events should not rely on traditional models with the second-order Pearson statistics. To make predictions, the models are necessary that take into account the power law distribution of recurrence intervals for failures on satellites. The failures should be considered in these models as extreme events connected with manifestation of the space environment factors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Mathematics, ul. Pushkina 125, Almaty, 480100, Republic of Kazakhstan

    L. M. Karimova & O. A. Kruglun

  2. Central Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pulkovskoye sh. 65/1, St.-Petersburg, 196140, Russia

    N. G. Makarenko

  3. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Bol’shaya Gruzinskaya 10, Moscow, 123995, Russia

    N. V. Romanova

Authors
  1. L. M. Karimova
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  2. O. A. Kruglun
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  3. N. G. Makarenko
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  4. N. V. Romanova
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Original Russian Text © L.M. Karimova, O.A. Kruglun, N.G. Makarenko, N.V. Romanova, 2011, published in Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, 2011, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 470–475.

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Karimova, L.M., Kruglun, O.A., Makarenko, N.G. et al. Power law distribution in statistics of failures in operation of spacecraft onboard equipment. Cosmic Res 49, 458–463 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952511040058

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