Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Long-Range Prediction of the Risk of Extinction Faced by the Pikeperch in the Azov Sea: Was the Prediction Correct?

  • COMPLEX SYSTEMS BIOPHYSICS
  • Published:
Biophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract—In the late 1990s, a high probability of quasi-extinction of the pikeperch population in the Azov Sea within 35 years from 1982 to 2016 was calculated due to increases in salinity. This was based on stochastic simulations with a long-term prediction model of the dynamics of the Azov Sea pikeperch population identified from the 1950−1981 observation data, including stocks, catches, temperatures, and salinities in the Azov Sea. This probabilistic prediction was accurate; the risk event occurred in the 2000s. Since 2005, the abundance of adult pikeperch did not exceed 4 million individuals. Since 2017, the pikeperch catch in the Azov Sea has been completely forbidden. Retrospective validation has demonstrated that the model prediction is in good (qualitative and quantitative) correspondence with the 1982–2018 observation data on dynamics of the pikeperch population. It has also been found that the currently observed rise in annual average sea temperature has a negative impact on fish population dynamics and this phenomenon is no less significant than an increase in salinity. According to a short-range prediction for 2019–2020, the ban on fishing introduced in 2017 is not sufficient to rebuild the stocks of the Azov Sea pikeperch population in the coming years due to existing positive temperature and salinity anomalies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. Yu. V. Tyutyunov, I. N. Senina, and L. I. Titova, in Computer Modeling: Ecology (Vuzovskaya Kniga, Moscow, 2000), pp. 58–78 [in Russian].

  2. Yu. Tyutyunov, I. Senina, C. Jost, and R. Arditi, Ecol. Model. 149, 297 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. V. V. Drozdov, Uch. Zap. Ross. Gos. Gidrometeorol. Univ. 15, 155 (2010) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  4. P. A. Balykin, D. N. Kutsyn, and A. M. Orlov, Oceanology 59 (3), 358 (2019).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. L. R. Ginzburg, L. B. Slobodkin, K. Jonson, and A. G. Bindman, Risk Anal. 2, 171 (1982).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. H. R. Akçakaya and L. R. Ginzburg, in Species Conservation: A Population Biological Approach, Ed. by A. Seitz and V. Loeschke (Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, 1991), pp. 78–87.

    Google Scholar 

  7. W. E. Ricker, J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 11, 559 (1954).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. V. E. Shelford, Animal Communities in Temperate America As Illustrated in the Chicago Region: A Study in Animal Ecology (Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1913).

    Google Scholar 

  9. E. R. Pianka, Evolutionary Ecology (Harper and Row, New York, 1978; Mir, Moscow, 1981).

  10. V. G. Il’ichev, Stability, Adaptation, and Control in Biological Systems (Fizmatlit, Moscow, 2009) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  11. I. Senina, Yu. Tyutyunov, and R. Arditi, J. Appl. Ecol. 36, 297 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. N. P. Goptarev, A. I. Simonov, B. M. Zatuchnaya, and D. E. Gershanovich, Hidrometeorology and Hydrochemistry of Soviet Seas, vol. 5: The Sea of Azov (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1991) [in Russian].

  13. A. M. Bronfman, S. P. Volovik, S. V. Kozlitina, et al., Statistical Structure of Oceanological and Biological Parameters of the Sea of Azov Ecosystem (Rostov State Univ., Rostov-on-Don, 1979) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  14. A. M. Bronfman, V. G. Dubinina, and G. D. Makarova, Hydrological and Hydrochemical Bases of Productivity of the Sea of Azov (Pishchevaya Promyshlennost’, Moscow, 1979) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  15. B. Efron and R. J. Tibshirani, An introduction to the Bootstrap (Chapman and Hall, London, 1993).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  16. A. M. Bronfman and F. A. Surkov, Tr. VNIRO 118, 62 (1976) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  17. D. Ya. Ratkovich, Vodn. Resursy, No. 1, 5 (1977) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  18. D. A. Podoinitsyn, Izv. Vuzov Sev.-Kavkaz. Region, Ser. Estestv. Nauki, No. 4, 111 (2010) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  19. Minutes of the XXIX Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Rostov-on-Don, 2018) [in Russian].

  20. Minutes of the XXX Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Rostov-on-Don, 2019) [in Russian].

  21. V. N. Belousov, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin, 1998–1999 (BKI, Rostov-on-Don, 2000), pp. 88–96 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  22. V. N. Belousov, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin, 2000–2001 (Voprosy Rybolovstva, Moscow 2002), pp. 279–291 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  23. V. N. Belousov, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin, 2002–2003 (Media-Press, Rostov-on Don, 2004), pp. 131–137 [in Russian].

  24. V. N. Belousov, Extended Abstract of Candidate’s Dissertation in Biology (Krasnodar, 2004) [in Russian].

  25. D. A. Podoinitsyn, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin, 2004–2005 (Diapazon, Rostov-on-Don, 2006), pp. 199–207 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  26. E. P. Tsunikova, T. M. Popova, E. A. Poroshina, and E. A. Nefedova, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin, 2006–2007) (Media-Press, Rostov-on-Don, 2008), pp. 270–293 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  27. V. A. Getmanenko, E. P. Gubanov, and L. V. Izergin, Ribne Gospodarstvo Ukraïni: Naukovo-Virobnichii Zh., No. 3, 4 (2012) [in Russian].

  28. A. A. Zhivoglyadov and S. V. Luk’yanov, Vopr. Rybolov. 19 (4), 405 (2018) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  29. S. V. Luk’yanov and A. A. Zhivoglyadov, in Ecological, Industrial, and Energy Safety–2018 (Sevastopol. Gos. Univ., Sevastopol, 2018), pp. 739–743 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  30. S. V. Luk’yanov and A. A. Zhivoglyadov, in Conflict in Nature Management: Role in the Evolution of Noosphere (Astrakhan. Gos. Univ., Astrakhan, 2019), pp. 78–83 [in Russian].

  31. Minutes of the XIX Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Anapa, Russia, 2007) [in Russian]. http://docs.cntd.ru/document/902114750.

  32. Minutes of the XX Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Berdyansk, Ukraine, 2008) [in Russian]. https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/2067519.

  33. Minutes of the XXI Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Rozhok, Rostov oblast, Russia, 2009) [in Russian]. http://bestpravo.com/rossijskoje/xd-pravila/b8b/index. htm.

  34. Minutes of the XXIII Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Temryuk, Krasnodar krai, Russia, 2011) [in Russian]. http://www.fishindustry.net/govermental-bodies/2164-rezultaty-xxiiisessii-rossiysko-ukrainskoy-komissii-po-voprosamrybolovstva-v-azovskom-more.html.

  35. Minutes of the XXIV Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Berdyansk, Ukraine, 2012) [in Russian].

  36. Minutes of the XXVIII Session of the Russo-Ukrainian Commission on the Problems of Fishing in the Sea of Azov (Kiev, Ukraine, 2016) [in Russian]. http://azniirkh.ru/novosti/ xxviii-sessiya-rossiysko-ukrainskoy-komissii-povoprosam-ryibolovstva-v-azovskom-more-zavershilasvoyu-rabotu-v-kieve-ukraina/

  37. L. V. Dashkevich, S. V. Berdnikov, and V. V. Kulygin, Vodn. Bioresursy Sreda Obitaniya 2 (2), 7 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  38. L. V. Dashkevich and V. V. Kulygin, in Proc. Int. Conf. “InterCarto–InterGIS,”. 25 (2), 112 (2019) [in Russian]. https://doi.org/10.35595/2414-9179-2019-2-25-112-120

  39. L. V. Dashkevich, S. V. Berdnikov, and V. V. Kulygin, Wat. Res., 44 (5), 749 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807817040042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. S. V. Berdnikov, in Patterns of Ecosystem Processes in the Sea of Azov, Ed. by G. G. Matishov (Nauka, Moscow, 2006), pp. 137–229 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  41. D. A. Podoinitsyn, Extended Abstract of Candidate’s Dissertation in Biology (Rostov-on Don, 2010) [in Russian].

  42. L. V. Kukarina, in Current Problems of the Fishing Industry and Protection of Fishery Water Bodies in the Azov–Black Sea Basin (AzNIIRKH, Rostov-on-Don, 1996), pp. 183–186 [in Russian].

  43. A. V. Nikitina, T. V. Rudneva, T. V. Kamyshnikova, et al., Sovrem. Problemy Nauki Obraz., No. 1, 1 (2015). [in Russian]. http://www.scienceeducation.ru/ru/article/view?id=19509.

  44. V. V. Kulygin, V. S. Gerasyuk, and L. V. Dashkevich, Inform. Kosmos, No. 1, 120 (2018) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  45. Yu. Tyutyunov, R. Arditi, B. Buttiker, et al., Ecol. Model. 69, 19 (1993).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. A. B. Medvinsky, A. V. Rusakov, A. E. Bobyrev, et al., Biophysics (Moscow) 54 (1), 90 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. L. V. Nedorezov, Population Dynamics: Analysis, Modelling, Forecast 2 (4), 129 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  48. A. I. Abakumov, Inform. Sistemy Upravleniya 54 (4), 12 (2017) [in Russian].

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. V. G. Il’ichev and O. A. Il’icheva, Biophysics (Moscow) 63 (2), 274 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. V. G. Il’ichev and L. V. Dashkevich, Komp’yut. Issled. Model. 11 (5), 879 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  51. G. P. Neverova, A. I. Abakumov, I. P. Yarovenko, and E. Ya. Frisman, Nonlinear Dyn. 94 (2), 827 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. I. I. Vorovich, A. S. Gorelov, A. B. Gorstko, et al., Rational Management of Aquatic Resources in the Sea of Azov Basin: Mathematical Models (Nauka, Moscow, 1981) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  53. G. G. Matishov, Yu. M. Gargopa, S. V. Berdnikov, and S. L. Dzhenyuk, in Patterns of Ecosystem Processes in the Sea of Azov, Ed. by G. G. Matishov (Nauka, Moscow, 2006) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  54. S. V. Berdnikov, V. V. Selyutin, V. V. Vasilchenko, and J. F. Caddy, Fisheries Res. 42 (3), 261 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The publication was prepared in the course of the implementation of The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences Federal Research Center topic Development of methods for geoinformation modeling of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, project registration number 01201363188 (Tyutyunov, Dashkevich); of the basic part of the Southern Federal University, topic Fundamental and applied problems of mathematical modeling, No. 1.5169.2017/8.9 (Titova); of the project of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research No. 18-01-00453a Multistable spatio-temporal scenarios in population systems (Tyutyunov).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Southern Scientific Center Federal Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, 344006, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

    Yu. V. Tyutyunov & L. V. Dashkevich

  2. Southern Federal University, 344090, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

    Yu. V. Tyutyunov & L. I. Titova

  3. Collecte Localisation Satellites, Space Oceanography Division, 31520, Ramonville Saint-Agne, France

    I. N. Senina

Authors
  1. Yu. V. Tyutyunov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. I. N. Senina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. L. I. Titova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. L. V. Dashkevich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yu. V. Tyutyunov.

Ethics declarations

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare that they do not have a conflict of interest.

COMPLIANCE WITH ETHICAL STANDARDS

This study was performed without the use of animals or people as subjects.

Additional information

Translated by P. Kuchina

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tyutyunov, Y.V., Senina, I.N., Titova, L.I. et al. Long-Range Prediction of the Risk of Extinction Faced by the Pikeperch in the Azov Sea: Was the Prediction Correct?. BIOPHYSICS 65, 338–348 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350920020256

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350920020256

Search

Navigation