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Numerical Forecast of the Sea State Parameters Considering a Priori Nonadiabatic Sources for a Limited Marine Area

  • MARINE PHYSICS
  • Published:
Oceanology Aims and scope

Abstract

The study considers the formulation of the problem and performs a numerical experiment for a short-term forecast of hydrological parameters using the data of two thermohaline surveys on September 14 and 16, 2019, at the test site of the Southern Branch of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences (IO RAS) at Gelendzhik. Due to the small spatial scale of the survey area (about 15 × 15 km), a forecast as a solution to the Cauchy problem is impossible due to the large time gap between surveys. Therefore, the authors attempted to solve the forecast problem using the technique of a priori nonadiabatic sources, reflecting the temporal variability of the sought characteristics contained in the field data of the first survey. Essentially, this technique assumes a persistent trend of temporal variability of hydrological processes during the transition to the second survey. In this case, the problem of forecasting with nonadiabatic sources is divided into two stages using a quasi-hyperbolic system of equations. At the first stage, the problem of analysis with assimilation of the first survey data is considered, in the solution of which the required nonadiabatic sources are found. At the second stage, the forecast problem is solved by calculating nonadiabatic a priori sources. Comparison of the forecast results with the data of the second survey in this case yields satisfactory results.

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Funding

The study was carried out within a state task (topic no. 0128-2021-0002) and with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (grant no. 18-11-00163 “Development of a Hierarchy of New-Generation Mathematical Models for Solving Computational Oceanological Problems Using Hyperbolic Decomposition and a Balance-Characteristic Approach.”

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    E. V. Semenov & A. G. Zatsepin

  2. Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russia Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    E. V. Semenov & E. V. Mortikov

  3. Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    E. V. Mortikov

Authors
  1. E. V. Semenov
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  2. A. G. Zatsepin
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  3. E. V. Mortikov
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to E. V. Semenov.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Semenov, E.V., Zatsepin, A.G. & Mortikov, E.V. Numerical Forecast of the Sea State Parameters Considering a Priori Nonadiabatic Sources for a Limited Marine Area. Oceanology 62, 482–486 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001437022040178

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001437022040178

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