Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling Orographic Precipitation Using the Example of Elbrus

  • GLACIERS AND ICE SHEETS
  • Published:
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A model of the orthographic component of precipitation based on the calculation of the condensation rate of water vapor in the air stream uplifting onto the mountain slope is proposed. The main assumptions of the model are as follows: the cooling of the rising air is determined only by the adiabatic process; the orographic component of the vertical component of wind speed is generated by the relief and its weakening with elevation is determined only by atmospheric stratification; the proportion of precipitation from the total mass of the condensed moisture depends only on the air temperature. ERA5 reanalysis, which was previously compared with observational data, is used as the initial data. The proposed model adequately reproduces the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation on the slopes of Elbrus both for short episodes and on the climatic time scale (1985–2018). A comparison of the modeling results with the reconstruction of the annual accumulation of precipitation from the ice core obtained on the western plateau of Elbrus in 2018 has shown a statistically significant positive correlation. However, a similar comparison with the data from the core extracted in 2009 does not give a statistically significant result. This suggests that the proposed model can be used as a tool for conformity between methods of accumulation reconstruction and for substantiation of their physical validity. In addition, this algorithm can be used to calculate monthly and annual sums of precipitation on the mountain slopes of various exposures and to estimate annual accumulation on mountain glaciers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. Barry, R.G., Mountain Weather and Climate, London: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2008.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  2. Chua, S.H. and Bras, R.L., Optimal estimators of mean areal precipitation in regions of orographic influence, J. Hydrol., 1982, nos. 1–2, vol. 57, nos. 1–2, pp. 23–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90101-9

  3. Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., and Phillips, D.L., A statistical–topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 1994, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 140–158. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Durran, D.R. and Klemp, J.B., On the effects of moisture on the Brunt–Väisälä frequency, J. Atmos. Sci., 1982, vol. 39, no. 10, pp. 2152–2158. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Elliott, R.D. and Hovind, E.L., The water balance of orographic clouds. J. of Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 1964, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 235–239. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Funk, C. and Michaelsen, J., A Simplified diagnostic model of orographic rainfall for enhancing satellite-based rainfall estimates in data-poor regions, J. Appl. Meteorol., 2004, vol. 43, no. 10, pp. 1366–1378. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2138.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Hunt, J. and Snyder, W.H., Experiments on stably and neutrally stratified flow over a model three-dimensional hill, J. Fluid Mech., 1980, vol. 96, no. 4, pp. 671–704. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112080002303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Huss, M. and Hock, R., A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise, J. Front. Earth Sci., 2015, vol. 3, pp. 54–67. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hutchinson, M.F., Interpolation of rainfall data with thin plate smoothing splines. Part 1: Two-dimensional smoothing of data with short range correlation, J. Geogr. Inf. Decision Anal., 1998, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 139–151.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Jiang, Q. and Smith, R.B., Cloud timescales and orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci., 2003, vol. 60, no. 13, pp. 1543–1559. https://doi.org/10.1175/2995.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Kislov, A.V., Georgiadi, A.G., Alekseeva, L.I., and Borodin, O.P., Air temperature and atmospheric precipitation fields in the regions with a sparse measurement network (with a reference to the Lena River Basin), Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2007, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 495–500.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Kozachek, A., Mikhalenko, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Ekaykin, A., Ginot, P., Kutuzov, S., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V., and Preunkert, S., Large-scale drivers of Caucasus climate variability in meteorological records and Mt. Elbrus ice cores, J. Clim. Past, 2017, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 473–489. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-473-2017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Krenke, A.N., Ananicheva, M.D., Demchenko, P.F., and Kislov, A.V., Metody otsenki posledstvii izmeneniya klimata dlya fizicheskikh i biologicheskih system (Methods for Assessing the Climate Change Effects on Physical and Biological Systems), vol. 9: Ledniki i lednikovye sistemy (Glaciers and Glacier Systems), Moscow: Rosgidromet, 2012, pp. 360–399.

  14. Kuligowski, R.J. and Barros, A.P., High-resolution short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting in mountainous regions using a nested model, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 1999, vol. 104, no. 24, 31553–31564. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Leung, L.R. and Ghan, S.J., A subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation. J. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 1995, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 95–118. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00865510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Markowski, P. and Richardson, Y.P., Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes, Wiley-Blackwell, 2010.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  17. Mendoza, V.M., Oda, B., and Adem, J., Parametrization of the precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and its verification in Mexico, J. Ann. Geophys., 1998, vol. 16, no. 7, pp. 853–865. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-998-0853-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Mikhalenko, V., Sokratov, S., Kutuzov, S., Ginot, P., Legrand, M., Preunkert, S., Lavrent’ev, I., Kozachek, A., Ekaykin, A., Fain, X., Lim, S., Schotterer, U., Lipenkov, V., and Toropov, P., Investigation of a deep ice core from the Elbrus western plateau, the Caucasus, Russia, Cryosphere, 2015, vol. 9, no. 6, pp. 2253–2270. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2253-2070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Mikhalenko, V.N., Kutuzov, S.S., Lavrent’yev, I.I., and Toropov, P.A., Ledniki i klimat El’brusa (Glaciers and the Climate of Elbrus), Moscow–St. Petersburg: Nestor-Istoriya, 2020.

  20. Mikhailov, A.Yu., Role of orographic vertical motions in the formation of the climatic filed of summer precipitation, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geogr., 1985, no. 5, pp. 96–103.

  21. Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., White, A.B., Kingsmill, D.E., and Persson, P.O., The statistical relationship between upslope flow and rainfall in California’s coastal mountains: Observations during CALJET, Mon. Weather Rev., 2002, vol. 130, no. 6, pp. 1468–1492. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Oleinikov, A.D. and Volodicheva, N.A., Winters of avalanche maximum in the Greater Caucasus for the period of instrumental observations (1968–2016), Led Sneg, 2020, vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 521–532.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Palm, S.P., Kayetha, V., Yang, Y., and Pauly, R., Blowing snow sublimation and transport over Antarctica from 11 years of CALIPSO observations, Cryosphere, 2017, vol. 11, pp. 2555–2569. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2555-2017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Rets, E. and Kireeva, M., Hazardous hydrological processes in mountainous areas under the impact of recent climate change: Case study of Terek River basin, IAHS-AISH Publ., 2010, vol. 340, pp. 126–134.

    Google Scholar 

  25. Roe, G.H., Montgomery, D.R., and Hallet, B., Orographic precipitation and the relief of mountain ranges, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 2010, vol. 108, no. 6, pp. 15–21.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Rotunno, R. and Houze, R.A., Lessons on orographic precipitation from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 2007, vol. 133, no. 625, pp. 811–830. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Sinclair, M.R., A diagnostic model for estimating orographic precipitation, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 1994, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 1163–1175. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Smith, R.B. and Barstad, I., A linear theory of orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci., 2004, vol. 61, no. 12, pp. 1377–1391. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Toropov, P.A., Aleshina, M.A., and Grachev, A.M., Large-scale climatic factors driving glacier recession in the Greater Caucasus, 20th–21st century, Int. J. Climatol., 2019, pp. 4703–4720. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6101

  30. Toropov, P.A., Shestakova, A.A., Polukhov, A.A., Semenova, A.A., and Mikhalenko, V.N., Features of the summer meteorological regime of the western plateau of Elbrus, Led Sneg, 2020, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 58–76. https://doi.org/10.31857/S2076673420010023

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The main part of this study was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 20–05–00176. The ice core data was analyzed and interpreted in the framework of Megagrant no. 075–15–2021–599, June 8, 2021.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    P. A. Toropov & Yu. I. Yarinich

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    P. A. Toropov & S. S. Kutuzov

  3. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    A. A. Shestakova

Authors
  1. P. A. Toropov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. A. Shestakova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yu. I. Yarinich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. S. S. Kutuzov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. A. Toropov.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Toropov, P.A., Shestakova, A.A., Yarinich, Y.I. et al. Modeling Orographic Precipitation Using the Example of Elbrus. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59 (Suppl 1), S8–S22 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823130108

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823130108

Keywords:

Search

Navigation