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Analysis of Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability of Regional-Scale Atmospheric Processes at Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

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Abstract

The issues related to the intraseasonal variability and predictability of regional scale atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere are considered. To identify the latter, circulation indices characterizing large-scale modes of atmospheric variability are used. An assessment is made of the regional intraseasonal variability of the atmospheric processes in the summer and winter seasons of 1991–2020. A study of practical predictability of regional atmospheric processes is carried out using the global semi-Lagrangian model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, jointly with the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, as well as reanalyses of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on weekly and monthly time scales. It is concluded that, beyond the first prognostic week, the quality of deterministic (ensemble average) forecasts drops sharply. In winter, the Pacific–North American Oscillation region is an exception, where a signal is traced not only over the first, but also over the second forecast week. The application of probabilistic forecasts makes it possible to increase the time interval of predictability compared to the deterministic approach from one week to a month. The largest errors are revealed in the forecasts of circulation regimes in the Northwest Atlantic and in the North Pacific, in the regions of the most significant intraseasonal variability. The results are planned to be used in the operational practice of intraseasonal forecasting of the North Eurasian Climate Center (NEACC).

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Funding

Estimates of the predictability of atmospheric processes based on the operational version of the global Semi-Lagrangian model (SLS) and reanalyses of the ECMRF (ERA5) on weekly and monthly time scales were carried out at the Federal State Budgetary Institution Hydrometeorological Center of Russia with support from the main innovative project of state importance The Unified National Monitoring System for Climatically Active Substances (agreement no. 169-15-2023-003 with the Federal State Budgetary Institution Hydrometeorological Center of Russia dated March 1, 2023).

The study of teleconnections of the regional atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere using climate indices was carried out at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, with financial support from the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 22-17-00247.

The work on the identification of anomalous atmospheric processes on a regional scale in the Northern Hemisphere was carried out with financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (agreement no. 075-15-2021-577 with the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, 123376, Moscow, Russia

    R. M. Vilfand, I. A. Kulikova, V. M. Khan & M. E. Makarova

  2. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    V. M. Khan

  3. Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    V. M. Khan

Authors
  1. R. M. Vilfand
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  2. I. A. Kulikova
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  3. V. M. Khan
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  4. M. E. Makarova
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Correspondence to R. M. Vilfand, I. A. Kulikova, V. M. Khan or M. E. Makarova.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

This article was prepared on the basis of an oral report presented at the IV All-Russian Conference Turbulence, Atmospheric and Climate Dynamics with international participation, dedicated to the memory of Academician A.M. Obukhov (Moscow, November 22–24, 2022).

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Translated by E. Morozov

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Vilfand, R.M., Kulikova, I.A., Khan, V.M. et al. Analysis of Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability of Regional-Scale Atmospheric Processes at Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59, 457–469 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823050110

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823050110

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