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Identifying a Fundamental Climatic Oscillation Using Wavelet Analysis of the Combined Data of Ground and Satellite Observations

  • PHYSICAL BASES AND METHODS OF STUDYING THE EARTH FROM SPACE
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Abstract

Slow climatic fluctuations of the World Ocean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the past century and a half as a response to the corresponding solar-activity modulations are identified and investigated. It is shown that, taking into account the nonstationary nature of climatic series, the most appropriate method for analysis is the calculation of wavelet spectra. It is found that the maxima of 11-year solar cycles obey long-term modulations with a wide range of quasi-periodicities, in which intervals of the 60–80 year oscillations, as well as the secular and two-century oscillations, are distinguished. These fluctuations are translated into the corresponding oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the ocean in the tropical zone. In the El Niño indices Niño 1,2 and Niño 4, responsible for SST anomalies in the water area near the coast of South America and in the central part of Pacific tropics, there is a different emphasis on the abovementioned long-term modulation. It can be assumed that 11-year fluctuations in solar activity are translated into short-period quasi-periodic (5–11 years) El Niño oscillations. In turn, long-term modulations, which we call, following previous researchers, the fundamental climatic oscillation (FCO), pass into SST oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, preserving the quasi-periodicity given by fluctuations in solar activity. In turn, the FCO is repeated in a series of the following climate indices: Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) and Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation in the Pacific Ocean, as well as in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The positive phase of AMO that began in the mid-1970s intensified the greenhouse effect on climate warming in the last quarter of the 20th century, but the stabilization of AMO values in the early 21st century led to a known “climate pause” in warming. It is shown that, for the shortened climatic series over the past half century, when the role of satellite measurements was dominant in the estimates of SST anomalies and the considered indices of the World Ocean, similar results were obtained for all wavelet spectra.

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  1. Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 195196, St. Petersburg, Russia

    O. M. Pokrovsky & I. O. Pokrovsky

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Pokrovsky, O.M., Pokrovsky, I.O. Identifying a Fundamental Climatic Oscillation Using Wavelet Analysis of the Combined Data of Ground and Satellite Observations. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 57, 1127–1136 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433821090589

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