Abstract
A σ-coordinate operational model for forecasting the state of waters at the Black Sea sub-satellite polygon in the area of Gelendzhik is presented. The model is developed based on the double nested grid technology. The data for setting the initial and boundary conditions of the model comes from the Black Sea Coastal Forecasting System. The model is able to reproduce the submesoscale variability of currents at the test site. An example of a 3-day forecast of temperature, salinity, and current velocity fields for the winter season is given.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
V. B. Zalesny, A. V. Gusev, and V. I. Agoshkov, “Modeling Black Sea circulation with high resolution in the coastal zone,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 52 (3), 277–293 (2016).
B. V. Divinsky, S. B. Kuklev, A. G. Zatsepin, B. V. Chubarenko, “Simulation of submesoscale variability of currents in the Black Sea coastal zone,” Oceanology (Engl. Transl.) 55 (6), 814–819 (2015).
C. Enriquez, G. Shapiro, A. Souza, and A. Zatsepin, “Hydrodynamic modelling of mesoscale eddies in the Black Sea,” Ocean Dyn. 55, 476–489 (2005).
S. Grayek, E. Stanev, and R. Kandilarov, “On the response of the Black Sea level to external forcing: Altimeter data and numerical modelling,” Ocean Dyn. 60 (1), 123–140 (2010).
K. A. Korotenko, “Modeling mesoscale circulation of the Black Sea,” Oceanology (Engl. Transl.) 55 (6), 820–826 (2015).
O. A. Dymova, “Modeling mesoscale and submesoscale processes in coastal zones of the Black Sea,” Tr. Karel. Nauchn. Tsentra Ross. Akad. Nauk, No. 8, 21–30 (2017).
S. G. Demyshev, “Prognostic numerical analysis of currents in the Black Sea with high horizontal resolution,” Phys. Oceanogr. 21 (1), 33–44 (2011).
S. G. Demyshev and N. A. Evstigneeva, “Modeling meso- and sub-mesoscale circulation along the eastern Crimean coast using numerical calculations,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 52 (5) 560–569 (2016).
O. Kordas, A. Gourjii, E. Nikiforovich, and D. Cherniy, “A study on mathematical short-term modelling of environmental pollutant transport by sea currents: The Lagrangian approach,” J. Environ. Accounting Manage. 5, 86–103 (2017).
D. Bruciaferri, G. Shapiro, S. Stanichny, A. Zatsepin, T. Ezer, F. Wobus, X. Francis, and D. Hilton, “A new numerical model for the Black Sea circulation,” Geophys. Res. Abs. 21, EGU2019-5933 (2019).
A. I. Mizyuk, A. A. Aleskerova, and A. A. Kubryakov, “Circulation in the Kerch Gulf according to the results of numerical modeling with local refinement of the computational grid,” in The Seas of Russia: Science, Security, and Resources. Conference Proceedings (Morskoi gidrofizicheskii institute, Sevastopol, 2017), pp. 40–41 [in Russian].
Demyshev, S.G., “A numerical model of online forecasting Black Sea currents,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 48 (1), 120–132 (2012).
S. A. Ciliberti, E. Peneva, A. Storto, R. Kandilarov, R. Lecci, C. Yang, G. Coppini, S. Masina, and N. Pinardi, “Implementation of Black Sea numerical model based on NEMO and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme for operational forecasting,” Geophys. Res. Abs. 18, EGU2016-16222 (2016).
S. A. Ciliberti, E. Peneva, A. Storto, B. Lemieux-Dudon, E. Ozsoy, G. Coppini, S. Masina, N. Pinardi, and A. Palazov, “Development of a regional NEMO-based configuration for the Black Sea in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service: Recent developments and future perspectives,” Geophys. Res. Abs. 20, EGU2018-18191 (2018).
A. Palazov, S. Ciliberti, E. Peneva, M. Gregoire, J. Staneva, B. Lemieux-Dudon, S. Masina, N. Pinardi, L. Vandenbulcke, A. Behrens, L. Lima, G. Coppini, V. Marinova, V. Slabakova, R. Lecci, et al., “Black Sea Observing System,” Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 315 (2019).
G. K. Korotaev, T. Oguz, V. L. Dorofeyev, S. G. Demyshev, A. I. Kubryakov, and Yu. B. Ratner, “Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system,” Ocean Sci. 7, 629–649 (2011).
G. K. Korotaev, Yu. B. Ratner, V. L. Dorofeev, A. I. Kubryakov, S. Stefanescu, and V. V. Fomin, “Operational forecast of the Black Sea dynamics. Coastal to global operational oceanography: Achievements and challenges,” in Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on EuroGOOS, 20–22 May 2008, Exeter, UK (SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 2010), pp. 177–183.
N. A. Diansky, V. V. Fomin, N. V. Zhokhova, and A. N. Korshenko, “Simulations of currents and pollution transport in the coastal waters of Big Sochi,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 49 (6), 611–621 (2013).
A. V. Gusev, V. B. Zalesny, and V. V. Fomin, “Technique for simulation of Black Sea circulation with increased resolution in the area of the IO RAS polygon,” Oceanology (Engl. Transl.) 57 (6), 880–892 (2017).
A. I. Kubryakov, G. K. Korotaev, V. L. Dorofeev, Y. B. Ratner, A. Palazov, N. Valchev, et al., “Black Sea coastal forecasting system,” Ocean Sci. 8, 183–196 (2012).
A. Kubryakov, G. Korotaev, Y. Ratner, A. Grigoriev, A. Kordzadze, S. Stefanescu, N. Valchev, and R. Matescu, “The Black Sea nearshore regions forecasting system: Operational implementation. Coastal to global operational oceanography: Achievements and challenges,” in Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on EuroGOOS, 20–22 May 2008, Exeter, UK (SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 2010), pp. 293–296.
Yu. B. Ratner, A. L. Kholod, A. I. Kubryakov, T. M. Bayankina, and M. V. Ivanchik, “Using measurement data from SVP-BTC and ARGO drifting buoys for validating predicted water temperatures in the coastal region of the Black Sea,” Morsk. Gidrofiz. Zh., No. 5, 33–48 (2014).
A. V. Grigor’ev, V. M. Gruzinov, A. G. Zatsepin, A. A. Vorontsov, A. I. Kubryakov, and A. O. Shapoval, “Operational oceanography of the northeastern Black Sea: Assessment of simulation accuracy in comparison with contact observation data. Hydrometeorological studies and forecasts,” Tr. Gidrometeorol. Tsentra Ross., No. 1, 79–96 (2018).
A. I. Kubryakov, A. V. Grigoriev, A. A. Kordzadze, et al., “Nowcasting/forecasting subsystem of the circulation in the Black Sea nearshore regions,” in European Operational Oceanography: Present and Future, 4th EuroGOOS Conference, 6–9 June 2005 (Brest, France, 2006), pp. 605–610.
A. A. Kordzadze and D. I. Demetrashvili, “Operational forecast of hydrophysical fields in the Georgian Black Sea coastal zone within the ECOOP,” Ocean Sci. 7, 793–803 (2011).
Eremeev V.N., Kubryakov A.I., and Shchiptsov A.A., “Calculation of anthropogenic pollution transport at the southern coast of the Crimea caused by an accident in the Laspinsky Bay,” in Global Observing System for the Black Sea: Principal and Applied Aspects (Morskoi gidrofizicheskii institute, Sevastopol, 2000), pp. 45–55 [in Russian].
A. I. Kubryakov and M. A. Popov, “Modeling of circulation and propagation of contaminating impurities in the Balaklava Bay,” Phys. Oceanogr. 15 (3), 180–191 (2005).
V. V. Knysh, A. I. Kubryakov, N. V. Inyushina, and G. K. Korotaev, “Reconstruction of the climatic seasonal circulation the Black Sea using a σ-coordinate model with assimilated temperature and salinity data,” in Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones and Integrated Exploitation of the Shelf Resources (EKOSI-Gidrofizika, Sevastopol’, 2008), No. 16, pp. 243–265 [in Russian].
V. V. Knysh, G. K. Korotaev, V. A. Moiseenko, A. I. Kubryakov, and V. N. Belokopytov, “Seasonal and interannual variability of Black Sea hydrophysical fields reconstructed from 1971–1993 reanalysis data,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 47 (3) 399–411 (2011).
A. I. Kubryakov, V. V. Suslin, T. Ya. Churilova, and G. K. Korotaev, “Influence of optical properties of water on the dynamics of upper layers of the Black Sea from 1985 to 2001,” in Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones and Integrated Exploitation of the Shelf Resources (MGI NAN Ukrainy, Sevastopol, 2012), Vol. 2, pp. 224–255 [in Russian].
A. I. Kubryakov, “The nested grid technique for creating a hydrophysical monitoring system for coastal areas of the Black Sea,” Ekol. Bezop. Pribrezhn. Shel’f. Zon, No. 11, 31–50 (2004).
https://ocean.ru/index.php/otdeleniya-i-filialy-io-ran/ yuzhnoe-otdelenie/item/1060-chernomorskij-poligon-io-ran-gelendzhik-poligon-gelendzhik.
A. V. Grigor’ev, A. G. Zatsepin, A. A. Vorontsov, A. I. Kubryakov, and A. O. Shapoval, “Qualitative and quantitative estimates for adequate simulation of the mesoscale dynamics of waters in the northeastern Black Sea according to observation data,” in Mesoscale and Submesoscale Processes in the Hydrosphere and Atmosphere (MSP-2018): Proceedings of the International Symposium (Inst. okeanol. im. P.P. Shirshova RAN, Mosk. Univ. im. S.Yu. Vitte, Moscow, 2018), pp. 94–97 [in Russian].
A. V. Grigor’ev, A. A. Kubryakov, A. I. Kubryakov, and K. O. Shapoval, “Operational oceanography of the northeastern Black Sea: Assessment of simulation accuracy in comparison with satellite data,” Ekol. Bezop. Pribrezhn. Shel’f. Zon Morya, No. 4, 33–39 (2019).
V. N. Belokopytov, A. I. Kubryakov, and S. F. Pryakhina, “Modeling of water pollution propagation in the Sevastopol Bay,” Phys. Oceanogr. 26 (1), 3–12 (2019).
J. Smagorinsky, “General circulation experiments with primitive equations, I. The basic experiment,” Mon. Weather Rev. 91, 99–164 (1963).
G. L. Mellor and T. Yamada, “Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems,” Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20 (4), 851–875 (1982).
A. Arakawa and V. R. Lamb, “Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model,” in Methods in Computational Physics: Advances in Research and Applications (Elsevier, 1977), pp. 173–265; General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1981), pp. 197–284 [in Russian].
A. F. Blumberg and G. L. Mellor, “A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean model,” in Three Dimensional Shelf Models, Coastal Estuarine Science, Ed. by N. Heaps (AGU, Washington, D.C., 1987), Vol. 5, pp. 1–16.
R. V. Madala and S. A. Piacsek, “A semi-implicit numerical model for baroclinic oceans,” J. Comput. Phys., No. 23, 167–178 (1997).
R. Courant, K. Friedrichs, and H. Lewy, “Über die partiellen Differenzengleichungen der mathematischen Physik,” Math. Ann. 36, 32–34 (1928);
Usp. Mat. Nauk, No. 8, 125–160 (1941).
P. K. Smolarkiewicz, “A fully multidimensional positive definite advection transport algorithm with small implicit diffusion,” J. Comput. Phys. 54, 325–362 (1984).
A. Papadopoulus, P. Katsafados, G. Kallos, and S. Nickovic, “The weather forecasting system for Poseidon: An overview,” J. Atmos. Ocean Sci. 8 (2–3), 219–237 (2002).
V. G. Krivosheya, V. B. Titov, I. M. Ovchinnikov, et al., “New data on the current regime on the shelf of the Northeastern Black Sea,” Oceanology (Engl. Transl.) 41 (3), 307–317 (2001).
A. G. Zatsepin, V. B. Piotoukh, A. O. Korzh, O. N. Kukleva, and D. M. Soloviev, “Variability of currents in the coastal zone of the Black Sea from long-term measurements with a bottom mounted ADCP,” Oceanology (Engl. Transl.) 52 (5) 579–592 (2012).
Funding
This work was performed under state order 0555-2021-0003 “The Development of Operational Oceanology Methods Based on Interdisciplinary Research of Processes of the Formation and Evolution of the Marine Environment and Mathematical Modeling with the involvement of Remote and Contact Measurement Data” and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project nos. 18-05-80028 “Dangerous Phenomena” and 18-45-920018 r_a.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Translated by A. Nikol’skii
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kubryakov, A.I., Grigoriev, A.V. & Kubryakov, V.A. Operational Forecast of Water Dynamics at the Black Sea Sub-Satellite Polygon “Gelendzhik”. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 57, 642–649 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433821060074
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433821060074